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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 180, Returned = 171.98, Yield = -4.46%
Two weeks ago Livorno were lit up 5-0 by Inter, but on Saturday, their defensive game got back on track as they beat Reggina 1-0. Livorno are on the road again, but I think they will again pay special attention to their defensive game as they have allowed 8 road goals in their last 2 road games. Offensively Livorno are a team that attempts the 2nd least shots on net, so in order to stay in this one they will really focus on their defensive game especially when you add to the fact that they are without their defensive ace Galante and midfielder Morrone. Cagliari are now without a Serie A win in their last 18 games, although 10 of those have been draws. They have not scored in their last 4 games, and have not beaten Livorno in their last 6 games. Cagliari will need to open up offensively in order to get something going before they dig themselves deeper into relegation. Tough to see that happening against Livorno, although Calgiari are at home. I see a very low scoring affair here, something in the 1-0, 1-1 range.
I'm a little more cautious here, but I still don't think we will see many goals in this one. Lazio are coming off an emotional derby againt Roma in a game which ended 1-1, but Roma deserved more. Lazio are not that gifted in the offensive part of their game having only scored twice in their last 3 games. Defensively they allow a lot of shots but always come up big. Against Roma they allowed 21 attempts but as mentioned only allowed 1 goal. Chievo are not known for their offensive game, but mostly for scoring off their counter attack. For this one Chievo will be without Cossato, Luciano and Brighi all 3 of which are starters. Both teams do not attempt many shots and with Chievo's injuries, and Lazio coming off a big game against Roma. I look for a low scoring boring game, in which the first team to score might actually win.
Big Derby in Tuscany which pits Siena's Chiesa against Fiorentina's Luca Toni, both of which are top scorers in the league. and Fiorentina (18) and Siena (17), the top two scoring teams in the league. Toni is on a huge roll having scored 3 goals twice in a two month span. Saturday he netted 3 against Parma in a 4-1 Fiorentina win. Fiorentina have played 8 games this season, 6 have gone OVER 2.5 goals. Their only losses were on the road to Inter (1-0) and Lazio (1-0). Siena allow the 4th most shot attempts in Serie A allowing almost 16 attempts per game. They too have played 8 games and 7 of them have gone OVER 2.5 goals. Siena recently scored 3 on a Roma team that allow the 3rd least shot attempts and last week scored 2 against an Udinese team that allow the 5th least shot attempts. Fiorentina's defensive game isn't as good as Roma's or Udinese's. I really think these two will light up the scoreboard and entertain this huge crowd that has come to watch this derby. Something like a 3-3 game wouldn't surprise , me, but I'll settle or a 2-1 game.
IMO, I think this might be one of the best, if not the best bet of this round. Palermo have struggled lately, playing both in Serie A and in UEFA cup. Too many games perhaps for a team that isn't deep and made the mistake of giving away Luca Toni in the off season. Having said that, Palermo have 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 4, but now are at home against a Lecce team that is more of a mid table Serie B team than a Serie A team. Lecce are struggling in every aspect of the game having scored only 2 goals all season. In fact, Lecce have not scored a single goal in their last 4 games and travelling to a Palermo stadium that is tough to play in isn't the answer. Palermo should win here, or questions will start to surface about firing their coach Del Neri. The payout isn't that great, but perhaps backing them on the Asian Handicap of -1 might be better seeing as we get refunded if they only win by 1. I cannot see Lecce scoring in this one, but if they do I think Palermo have enough to score 3. After all, Palermo attempt 19 shots per game which is #1 in Serie A, and when you are creating chances you are on the right track.
Ascoli and Udinese neutral field advantage Udinese, but Ascoli are hot losing only 1 time in their last 5 games. Empoli and Milan . Milan are the obvious choice but they have some injuries and play Juventus on Sunday, while Empoli have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5. Inter and Roma. Roma dominated Lazio and drew 1-1 on Sunday and Inter have a few injuries offensively her still i think Roma might surprise and get some points here. Juventus and Samp. The Samp defence is terrible and I was tempted to take the over 2.5 goals here, but I kept in mind Juventus v Milan on Sunday, which i know the players are saving themselves for. Parma and Messina. Tough game which looks like a draw. Reggina and Treviso. Reggina seem to have the advantage playing at home here, but Treviso have enough to get 1 point.
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