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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 242, Returned = 249.92, Yield = + 3.27%
Tough to go against Livorno at home where they have 5 wins 1 draw scoring 9 and allowing just 1 goal, but lets take a closer look at their opponents. At home they have played Reggina, Ascoli, Empoli, Lecce, Parma and Roma. Cagliari are in last place while Lecce are in 2nd last place. Parma sit 16th, Reggina 15th and Ascoli 14th. The only real team they have played against at home has been Roma and that ended 0-0. Chievo are the 2nd best road team in Serie A with a 3-2-1 record. Their only road loss was 1-0 to Juventus and that is nothing to be ashamed of. Livorno also attempt the least shots on goal in Serie A, so it not like they blow anyone away offensively. Livorno have never scored more than 2 goal in any game, while Chievo have never allowed more than 2 goal in any game. Point being, win lose or draw, this is a must play in backing Chievo not to lose.
Cagliari sit in last place and even their 4th coach of this young season couldn't bring them to victory last week against 15th place Reggina. Cagliari are a terrible offensive team who always have trouble finding the back of the net. Defensively however, they limit opponents to the 3rd least shots on goal in Serie A. Sampdoria have played a very tough schedule so far. They have played Fiorentina, Milan, Inter, Juventus, in Palermo, just to mention a few. Just for the record, they went into Palermo and beat them, They tied Inter and also beat Milan 2-1 not to shabby and to ask them now to travel to the last place team in Serie A and get points doesn't seem like a difficult task? Defensively they have kept clean sheets in their last 2 games and since Cagliari have only scored 8 goals in 12 games this season and a whopping 3 goals in 6 home games. Our wager on backing Sampdoria is looking even better.
Prior to last weeks 2-0 win against Parma, Inter seemed to be in a bit of a slump. Perhaps Parma is just what they needed to start playing decent soccer again. Offensively they have looked good in their last 2 games directing 47 shots towards their opponents net and when you have an Adriano on your side, you are always a dangerous team. Messina continue to struggle and now have not scored in their last 2 games. Messina continue to win games against the Lecce's of Serie A, but cannot win nor score against the Udinese's and Roma's. Inter fits right into that mould and I would be surprised to see Messina score here. If by chance they do, scoring 2 for Inter isn't a difficult task.
Hats of to Fiorentina who actually beat Milan 3-1 last week in a game in which we sided with Fiorentina. This week however, I see a CLEAR Roma win. Fiorentina last week were out played for most of the game with Milan and in fact, were looking to counter most of the game. Fiorentina have also 5 straight wins, but a closer look at their wins reveals a little more about them. Before Milan they beat Ascoli a team who sits in 14th place. Week prior it was last place Cagliari, the week prior it was Siena in a game where Fiorentina attempted only 8 shots towards the goal as opposed to Siena who attempted 24!!! Even going back another week Fiorentina beat 16th place Parma. Don't get me wrong, im not saying that Fiorentina are not a good team. I'm just wondering how legit this 5 game winning streak is. Even against Milan one need to remember that Milan had to travel to Turkey mid week for a cup game so perhaps travelling to Florence wasn't the best situation for them? Roma lost to Juventus 4-1 last week, but before that loss they too had a 5 game unbeaten streak. Roma are at home here and will give show Fiorentina something that they haven't' seen before and that is a team with offensive and defensive balance. Most teams Fiorentina have played are one dimensional, while Roma offensively attempt the 4th most shots and defensively allow opponents the 5th least shots. Also consider that Juventus are on deck next for Fiorentina and I'm not so sure they can go through Milan, Roma and Juventus all in a row.
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