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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 375, Returned = 410.54, Yield = + 9.48%
Messina are a terrible road team (2-4-7) scoring only 13 road goals while allowing 22. Last time out they tied Juventus 2-2 at home, but I expect many will back Messina here because of that. Ascoli are a tougher team than their results indicate. In their last 8 games they have only lost twice and those two losses were 3-1 to Juventus and 1-0 to Milan. They have only allowed 2 goals in their last 4 games and give them home field with a bad travelling Messina team and I see a clear home win at a nice price.
I expect Cagliari to get tons of public support only because they are at home. Too much is being made of their home record 5-6-1 scoring 14 and only allowing 8 goals, which is very decent, but lets not forget about Chievo. Cagliari IMO, should be paying a little bit less than what they are paying and the books almost seem to be enticing everyone to back Cagliari with a nice payout. Cagliari, before last weeks 0-0 draw to Lecce, had 6 straight home wins and in that span only allowed 2 goals. Many say the reason they drew 0-0 with Lecce last week was because the team had an internal virus, which caused many, if not all their players to be less than 100%. In fact, the last time Cagliari lost at home was October 16th 2005 and that was 1-0 against Milan. Again, one must wonder if all that is in Cagliari's favour. Why are they paying so well? Chievo are surely no walk in the park as they too have looked sharp lately. Chievo have only 2 losses in their last 7 games and those two came against Inter (1-0) and Parma (2-1). During that span they even managed to draw Juventus 1-1. Chievo are always dangerous on the road and as underdogs. I think Chievo wins this one outright or we see a draw.
This is another game in which to many people are already pencilling in a Lazio win because of the Totti injury. Let me say this. When, if, Totti is on his game he is one of the best players on the planet. Problem however is that most days he isn't on and is just above average. Roma have won 10 straight games and most of that has NOT been because of Totti but because of their team play. This game is a derby and both teams will have a lot of fan support, so saying that Lazio is the home team is incorrect. Roma will be motivated enough, with the derby, throw in the fact that they are eager to show the Italian public that they are more than a 1 man team and you have the dangers of an upset here.
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