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Analysis Serie A: 2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 79, Returned = 78.65, Yield = -0.44%
Reggina 2-0 Udinese
Reggina had allowed 3 goal in everyone of their first 3 games, yet only lost 1-0 to Palermo on Wednesday. Most of that was due to two reasons. First, Reggina were getting back 4 starters two of which are very important in Paredes and Tedesco. Secondly we said Palermo might have a tough time getting up for this one as this game had blow out written all over it and we were on the under 2,5 goals. Reggina are not a Serie A team and I'm pretty sure by seasons end they will end up in Serie B, but today however they have a legit shot at getting a draw here. Udinese are without their main scorer, Iaquinta again. He still has two years left on his contract but wants an extension and the team isn't willing to sit down and talk with him. Udinese lost at home to Juventus on Wednesday 1-0, but if you watched that game you know that Udinese surely deserved at least a draw! Udinese have a cup game next Wednesday so playing 2 games in a 3 day span might now be in their best interest. Cant see them being focused here for 90 minutes, but i can see a draw. NO BETS.
Parma 1-2 Juventus
This is a game that might come back to haunt me but I will side with Juventus. Parma have always given Juventus a tough time especially when playing at home. When the two have played in Parma, going back to the 1993-1992 season, 12 games have been played. 6 of those have been draws, while Parma won 4 and Juventus have only won 2, in 1996 (1-0) and in 1993 (2-0). Having said this it becomes even tougher to back Juventus, also throwing in the fact that they travelled to Udine on Wednesday, travel to Parma today and will play a cup game mid week! This years version on Parma however are a very bad team. Wednesday they lost to Roma 4-1 in a game in which they landed 1 shot on goal! The week prior they beat newly promoted Empoli 1-0 but Empoli attempted 23 shots on them. Juventus have only allowed 1 goal in their 4 Serie A games. They held Chievo shot less, while allowing Empoli, Ascoli and Udinese all to two shots respectively. I'm not sure Parma will even get a shot on net here and dispite the fact that Juventus are not dressing Nedved, Ibrahimovic, Emerson and others. Their bench players have more than enough to find the net against this years version of Parma who have allowed a league high 26 shots on goals in 4 games and have also allowed a league high of 74 attempted shots which translates to 18.5 attempts per game.
Bet: Juventus
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.70 (Interwetten)
Lazio 4-2 Palermo
Lazio's undefeated streak came to and end mid week when they finally played a decent team and lost to Milan 2-0 at home. Up until then Lazio had played, Messina, Treviso and Cagliari and still attempted the 2nd least shots on goal, while allowing the 2nd most on goal. Their defence is suspect and their midfield is not good at all. Palermo have started where they left off last season and despite selling Luca Toni, offensively Makinaw and Caracciolo have taken over the controls. Palermo defender Terlizzi has scored in all 4 of Palermos games and is always a threat on set piece and corners. This is a tough game to call with any result possible, but I think a draw would best help both teams. NO BETS.
Livorno 2-0 Ascoli
I will support Livorno here in a game in which the first team to score should win. Ascoli have done rather well for their first season in Serie A. They opened up the season drawing on of the best teams in the world in Milan 1-1. In their 2nd game they tied Lecce 0-0. Game three saw them lose 2-1 to Juventus and there certainly isn't any shame in that. Midweek they tied Siena 1-1. As good as Ascoli are in their defensive game, offensively they attempt the least shots on goal in Serie A. Livorno have looked good on the defensive end having only allowed 1 goal so far this season. Offensively they have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 games and Lucarelli is yet to find the scoring touch he had last season. Livorno haven't had the toughest schedule so far but I was impressed with their effort last weekend against a very good offensive Roma team in which Livorno held them to a 0-0 scoreless draw only allowing Roma 4 shots on goal. I cannot see Ascoli finding their offensive game against a stout Livorno defence. Perhaps backing the better, defensive team, at home is the way to go.
BET: Livorno
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.75 (Interwetten)
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 1.70 (Astrabet)
Sampdoria 1-2 Chievo
Chievo are still anaemic offensively basically rarely scoring except for their 3 against Reggina and it worth noting 2 other team have also scored 3 against Reggina. Mid week Chievo lost to Inter 1-0 in a game that flatters Chievo very much. Sampdoria are pulling off surprise wins like the one against Milan last weekend in which they were dominated but still escaped with a 2-1 win. Sampdoria won mid week again Treviso but the fact that Treviso attempted 17 shot on them worries me a little. Sampdoria also allowed Reggina to score 2 on them in game 2, so perhaps this is exactly what the doctor ordered to help Chievo with their offensive woes? NO BETS.
Cagliari 0-0 Roma
Roma looked superb mid week clobbering Parma 4-1. In retrospect, that isn't as big a deal as you would think when you consider Parma allow 18.5 shot attempts per game and Roma thumped 21 on them! Roma beat up Reggina 3-0 as well but as soon as they were faced with a decent opponent they didn't look as good. Against Livorno they tied 0-0 and at home against a good Udinese side they lost 1-0. I don't think Cagliari are a good side, but at home they are a different team. Last season they had the 2nd best home record and this season in their first 2 home games they came away with two draws. Surprisingly Cagliari have improved defensively from last season and at home this season in two games they allowed opponents only 4 shots combined on goal. Roma have a few injuries for this one which include Cassano, Mancini and their defensive ace Chivu. Roma are famous for playing a great game followed by a flop. Everything here points to and upset or at the very least a draw.
Bet: Cagliari +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 4/10
Odds: 2.06 (Pinnacle
Sports)
Empoli 1-0 Lecce
I think Empoli wins here but I won't touch this one. Empoli hadn't scored a single goal in their first three games but netted 3 mid week against Cagliari. Lecce are having troubles finding the net themselves having recorded only 2 goals in their four games. The home team should win here, but neither are reliable enough to back with real money. NO BETS.
Inter 1-0 Fiorentina
Im not big on following public opinion but this one does have the makings of a high scoring game. After all, a Fiorentina team that attempts the 4th most shots in Serie A and Inter who attempt the 2nd most! Fiorentina have gone OVER 2.5 goals in all 4 of their games, while Inter have gone OVER 2.5 goals in 3 of their first 4. Inter coach Mancini said he will line up his first team a team that includes Adriano, while Luca Toni and Bojinov will start up front for Fiorentina. Inter are still suspect at the back IMO, and Fiorentina should find some holes in the Inter defence to score 1 or 2 here. Fiorentina aren't the tightest at the back having allowed Udinese to score 2 on them at home and they even allowed Messina to score 2 on them. I think Inter will win here, but the over seems a bit more appealing in a game that might finish 3-2.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.85 (Ladbrokes)
Treviso 0-2 Milan
Milan will have their way with Treviso that I guarantee 100%. The problem here is that Milan have a cup game mid week and will only score enough to win here. The payout is horrible and backing Milan at -1.5 is risking. NO BETS.
Siena 4-2 Messina
Messina have the injury bug with starters Zanchi, Zampagna and Parisi all sitting this one out yet I still think they either win or draw here! Siena have failed to impress me so far this season. In their season opener they beat Cagliari 2-1 and I've documented how bad Cagliari are on the road, not to mention in that game they were down to 10 players from the 67th minute on. Game two Siena lost to a better Milan team 3-1. Game 4, they lost to a very good Palermo team 2-1. Finally mid week they went to Ascoli and tied 1-1. For starters I'm not very impressed with them allowing 7 goals in 4 games! Secondly, on the offensive side of the ball they really have know one that puts a scare in you. Messina lost their season opener 1-0 to Lazio but out shot them 20-9. Game two Messina tied offensive powerhouse Fiorentina 2-2 in a game in which they didn't look out of place. Game 3 they tied Cagliari in Cagliari and that is never an easy task. Mid week they tied Livorno 0-0. Take away the 2 goals Fiorentina scored against Messina and they have allowed only 2 goals in their other 3 games. I see a low scoring game here and that fits right into Messina's game plan. Don't be surprised to see a 1-0 Messina win , but im looking for something along the lines of 0-0 or 1-1.
Bet: Messina +0.25 (Asian handicap)
Stake: 4/10
Odds: 2.05 (Pinnacle Sports)
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