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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 223, Returned = 233.57, Yield = + 4.74%
This will be the game of the weekend in Serie A as these two powerhouses go head to head in Florence. Fiorentina come into this one having won 4 straight and also with the top goal scorer in the league in Luca Toni who has 13 goals. In the last 4 games in which Fiorentina have played they have managed to score 10 goals and only allow 2. Milan are on a bit of a roll too, having scored 13 in their last 4 and one of those wins was a convincing 3-1 win over Juventus. Two important things about this match. Both these teams will know what Juventus did against Roma on Saturday and this will factor into this game. Secondly, Milan have a Champions League game mid week and have to travel to Turkey. Fiorentina have only played 1 opponent that might mimic Milan and that was Inter in a game in which they lost and were totally dominated. This game however is in Florence and I expect Fiorentina to at least get a draw here as their coach is great with X's and O's and he has had two weeks to prepare for this one.
I'm still not sold on Lazio as i feel they are anaemic on the offensive side and allow too many shots on the defensive side. On the road Lazio have yet to win (0-2-3). In that 5 game span they have only scored twice and overall in their last 2 games they have not scored. Sampdoria IMO, continue to be undervalued by the odds makers. In their last 3 games they have played 3 tough opponents in Palermo, Juventus and Inter and have faired very well going 1-1-1. Odds makers also forget that Sampdoria have already beat Milan this season 2-1, drew with Inter 2-2 and lost to Juventus 2-0, three tough teams. Today we are backing the better team, with the home field advantage and win lose or draw this is a must play.
Lecce 3-0 Siena
I'm not sure how in the world anyone can back Lecce here? They sit in last place with a 1-1-9 record having scored the least goals (5) and having allowed the most (21). Lecce have also not scored in their last 5 straight games and in that span they have allowed at least 2 goals in every game. Siena have not played great as of late but have a better coach and better talent than Lecce. Siena have only scored once in their last 3 games and have only 1 win in their last 5 games allowing 9 goals in that span. Those numbers do not look convincing and today Siena are without their back 4 (Locatelli, Tudor, Bacchini and Colonnese) , add to the fact that Lecce are at home and that is why I think Siena are underdogs here. Let no forget that although Siena have slumped in their last 3 games, they have managed to create chance at a span of 60 shots towards the net as opposed to allowing 26! Lecce allow the most shots on goal in Serie A and i think Siena should find the net once or twice here.
While most teams prepared for their next opponent during the two week break. Cagliari hired their 4th coach of the year!! Cagliari have yet to win on the road and most of that is due to the fact that they cannot attack. They attempt the 2nd least shots on goal, and playing on the road will be even tougher to score. Defensively however, they are a surprise as they allow the 3rd least shots attempted. Reggina mimic Cagliari in a lot of ways, except that Reggina actually win games at home. Reggina do not have a threatening attack and have only managed 1 goal in their last 2 games and those games were against terrible defensive teams in Empoli and Lazio. I cannot see many chances being created here by either side, so anything more than 2 goals would really surprise me.
If Inter have their work boots on this one should be over by the time the national anthem is done! Parma are hurting in many ways including on the road where they are 0-0-5 scoring 3 and allowing 14. That's an average of almost 3 goals allowed per game. Inter have only 1 home loss, that one being to Roma 3-2 and in their 5 home games they have scored 14 and allowed only 3. Parma will NOT score here and Inter should have their way. Inter at home this season have won 3-0, 3-0, 1-0, 5-0, and that one 3-2 loss to Roma which i mentioned, all 5 opponents are better than Parma. This one could get ugly really fast as Inter beat Livorno 5-0 at home earlier this season and Livorno allow the 3rd least shot attempted one cannot say the same about Parma. I look for Adriano to have his way here as this might just be a game in which he nets 3!
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