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Analysis Serie A: 2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 290, Returned = 298.99, Yield = + 3.10%
Lazio 1-1 Juventus
I'm not sure Lazio are the team to knock off Juventus even if Juventus are on the road here. The black and white are sitting comfortably in first place with a 14-0-1 record having allowed a league best 8 goals against. Even on the road, their 17 goals scored are a league best while travelling. Last week Juventus knocked off Cagliari
4-0 and the week prior went to Florence and beat a very
tough Fiorentina team 2-1. Lazio travelled to Livorno last week
and lost 2-1. The week prior they won 3-2 against Siena, and
even going back a week before they won 3-2 against Empoli. Siena
and Empoli however are not Juventus. In the games mentioned
above both Empoli and Siena managed 2 goals against a porous Lazio
defence, and if Juventus are on their game 2 should be scored before
halftime. Lazio should be up for this one, but they lack the
skill and quality players to beat Juventus.
Bet: Juventus
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.78 (WSEX)
Treviso 2-1 Lecce
Treviso are currently in last place and every game is played for survival. They didn't look too out of place last week travelling to Florence even though they eventually lost 1-0. Could have been 2-0 as Toni Luca missed a penalty shot. The problem with Treviso is they too lack quality players especially in the attacking position where they have not scored in 2 games. Lecce seem to be making some small strides as of late. Three games ago they travelled and lost to Milan 2-1 and certainly there is no shame in losing to Milan. Two weeks ago they tied Roma 2-2 in a game in which they were not out played and didn't look out of place. Last week they went to Udinese and beat a tough Udinese team 2-1. Udinese have a very solid defensive game and scoring 2 on them was no easy feat. Either way, this game is a must play as I don't think Treviso have enough to win here and at worse we still cash in on a draw.
Bet: Lecce +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.83 (Pinnacle Sports)
Cagliari 2-1 Ascoli
No way in the world should Cagliari be favoured here! Despite being at home this is still a team that has won 1 game all season. Cagliari are very sound defensively where they don't allow too many shots on goal. Offensively however, they attempt the 2nd least shots on goal. Cagliari have score 2 or more goals only twice this season in 15 games and I doubt they do that today. Even at home where they dominated last season they are failing as they have only scored 5 goals in 7 home games. Ascoli are not world beaters but have every bit of chance of getting 3 full points here if not 1 at worse. In 7 of their last 8 games the total has stayed under 2.5 goals which says something about their style of play. They defend very well and look to score on the counter. A couple of weeks ago they travelled to Milan and lost to Inter 1-0, this an Inter team that attempts the most shot on goal in Serie A. Even the week prior they drew Palermo 1-1 and Palermo attempt the 3rd most shots on goal. Lets also not forget that Ascoli have already played the "big 3 " in Italy and faired quite well. They tied Milan 1-1, Lost to Inter 1-0 and lost to Juventus 2-1. Surely know one will mistake Cagliari for the 3 mentioned above. In a game in which Ascoli have just as much chance to win, I see value in backing them.
Bet: Ascoli +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 2.06 (Canbet)
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.72 (Unibet)
Chievo 2-0 Udinese
We called it here last week stating Chievo would have a tough time getting the same output that they did against Milan the week prior. In fact, they lost to Messina 2-0. This week I look for them to once again be focused. AT home they are very strong especially on the defensive side where they have only allowed 6 goals in their 7 home games. Today they take on an Udinese team that is a little banged up and coming of a mid week cup game. Udinese lost at home last week to and improving Lecce side and the week prior they also lost at home to Livorno. Udinese have only scored 1 goal in their last 2 games and the going might get tougher against a "defence first" Chievo side. Chievo attempt the least shots on goal in Serie A, while Udinese allow the 3rd least attempts, so it is of my opinion that goals will be tough to come by in this one. If Udinese score first Chievo will surely go for a draw. If Chievo score first, they might just get in a defensive shell and win it 1-0. Overall I look for a something like a 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 game.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.75 (Interwetten)
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