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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 310, Returned = 325.09, Yield = + 4.87%
Lecce are back to their losing ways dropping a 3-1 decision against Chievo last weekend. Lecce lack a solid defensive game and generally allow opponents to control the midfield and dictate play. The week prior Lecce at home, tied Lazio 0-0 and this is a Lazio team that allows the 2nd most shots against in Serie A. In fact, Lecce have only 1 win in their last 6 games and that was against an injured Udinese team. Sampdoria, if anything really know how to create scoring chances as they attempt the 6th most shots in Serie A. At first glace many will say that they have only scored 1 goal in their last 3 games, but a closer look reveals their last 3 opponents were Livorno, Udinese and Roma, all 3 which are very decent defensive teams. Sampdoria have more talent than Lecce, and should find a way to score 1 more than Lecce here. A draw refunds us our money.
Messina opened up the second part of the season with a 3-1 road win against lowly Empoli. The 3 goals, even on the road, shouldn't surprise as Empoli allow the most shots on goal in Serie A. Defensively however, Messina are still a big question mark allowing 6 goals in their last 3 games, and two of those games came against anaemic offensives in Empoli and Reggina. Palermo have been very deceiving as of late. Most will look and see their last 3 games have been losses and in that span they've only scored once. Having said that, their last 3 games were against #1 Juventus, #4 Fiorentina and #5 Livorno! Through all of that Palermo still attempt the 3rd most shots on goal only behind Inter and Milan while allowing opponents a 6th best shots on goal. On the road in their last 3 games Palermo are 1-3-1 (w-d-l) scoring 5 and allowing only 5. Palermo coach, Del Neri is too smart a coach to let 3 points slip by against a Messina team that will likely end up in Serie B next season. I look for Palermo to have a nice breakout game and possibly win by 2 goals here, but for safety reasons I will back them with an Asian Handicap.
Many internet write ups and such are mistaken, in this one when they call for Fiorentina to be the home team. This game will be played on a neutral field in Perugia. Having said that, Fiorentina are better travellers and have only lost once in their last 5 games, where as Chievo have only won once in their last 5 games. What's even more impressive for Fiorentina is that score leader Luca Toni has not scored in his last 5 games, but I'm 100% sure he will today. Chievo are very inconsistent especially on the defensive side where, on the road, they allow a goal every 63 minutes. To make matters worse today they are without 2 important starters in Obinna and Cossato. Fiorentina score every 50 minutes and I look for the Fiorentina game plan to allow Toni to have more touches on the ball. This one has the makings of a 2-1 or 2-2 game and as much as I like Fiorentina, I see more value on the total.
Odds: 1.93 (Bet10)
Roma 1-0 Milan
In my opinion to much is being made of Milan Swiss cheese like defensive play as of late. Last week at home they win 4-3 against Parma, but allowing a terrible Parma team to score 3 goals in San Siro is what everyone is talking about. Don't think that is sitting well with a Milan team that has a lot of pride. Offensively however, is where Milan will win this game. In their last 3 games they have scored 11 goals and Gilardino and Shevchenko have been in on 8 of those 11. In fact, their offence is clicking so well that they let Vieri go last week and he is on his way to Monaco. Milan's 16 road goals are second best in Serie A, and their 43 goals overall are first in Serie A. You are going to read about how Roma's defence is playing well with Dacourt being back and Chivu and Mexes playing solid at the back and although that is true, they haven't seen what Milan will bring offensively yet! Roma are inconsistent at best especially at home where they are only 3-2-4 (w-d-l). Their 14 goals allowed at home are the 2nd most home goals in Serie A. Totti will be shadowed as the lone striker and I wouldn't be surprised to see Milan win by 2 goals here in order to close the gap on Juventus who is running away with the Scudetto. I would much prefer an Asian Handicap of (+1/2 or pk) but since that is difficult to find I will back Milan outright.
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