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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 415, Returned = 439.89, Yield = + 6.00%
Simply put Empoli are sitting in a position that will see them ending up in Serie B next season. They haven't won in their last 4 games and to make matters worse, they have only 1 goal in those 4 games. Chievo are always a tough bunch even on the road. In their last 5 games they have 4 draws and 1 win, but the difference between these two is quite a bit even if Chievo are on the road.
Perhaps an upset in the making here. Fiorentina are at best an average road team and as of this writing Luca Toni is questionable. Last road game they won 2-0 against Parma, but doesn't everyone beat Parma?? Before that Parma game Fiorentina hadn't won on the road since Nov 6th 2005, which was a stretch of 6 games. Cagliari are a terrible side but at home they are one of the best sides in Serie A. At home they have only lost once this season and that was way back on October 16th against Milan 2-0!! In their 13 home games their 10 goals allowed are 2nd best and if we throw into the equation that Toni is 70% at best. We have a Cagliari win or at worse a draw.
As a rule I hate asking bad teams to win me money, but I'll make an exception here and back Lecce as they are desperate and have been playing better soccer than Messina lately. Messina sit in 17th place and need points too, but that wont be easy even at home as they haven't scored in their last 2 games. Lecce are 2nd last and as mentioned are hungry for points especially 3! In the last month their form has been a bit on the rise as they have only 1 loss. In fact, that loss came against Juventus 3-1 but during that span they drew Cagliari and Reggina while beating Palermo 2-0 and looking decent last weekend.
Ascoli to beat mighty Roma? Why not? Or at the very least backing Ascoli on the Asian handicap of +0.5 . Roma have recently surpassed a consecutive win streak and last week that streak ended with their 1-1 draw to Inter. In that game Roma looked tired in the second half and lacked some spark in their game. Midweek they were asked to travel to northern England and lose a cup game 1-0. Now they are asked to come back to Italy, travel, and play against an Ascoli side that should see Roma play disinterested in my opinion. No record to focus on, no top 5 team, no game of the week, no Totti, Doni or Montella either. Ascoli remain a very underrated side. In fact, in their last 10 games they have only 2 losses and those were against Juventus and Milan! In their 14 home games they have only allowed 13 goals and only 2 in their last 5 games. Ascoli have enough here to get at least 1 point, but if they go up a goal early, I look for an upset.
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