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Analysis Serie A: 2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 264, Returned = 290.24, Yield = + 9.94%
Messina 2-0 Chievo
It's probably going to take a while for Chievo to come out of the clouds after upsetting Milan 2-1 last week. Most often when a team plays at a very high level such as in the Milan game. It is difficult to come out sharp the week after and maintain that level of play. I look for Chievo to be a little flat here and perhaps have a difficult time finding the back of the net. As far as creating scoring opportunities go, Chievo create the least in Serie A and you factor in that they should be a little flat and everything indicates a low scoring game. Chievo netted 2 against Milan but before that they couldn't score on Livorno, only found the net once against lowly Ascoli and even the week prior only scored 1 on a Swiss cheese Siena defence. Messina are struggling to win never mind scoring goals. They have only scored 1 goal in their last 4 games and against a Chievo side that has yet to surrender more than 1 goal in any given game this season. Messina will be lucky to find the once if at all. I see something like a 1-1 0-1, or 1-0 game.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.72 (Unibet)
Ascoli 1-1 Reggina
Don't be fooled by the fact that Reggina scored 2 goals last week and 3 goals two weeks prior. Both of those games were at home where they seem to play very well. On the road this season Reggina have only scored 3 goals. In fact, they have not score a road goal in 3 games and have only 1 road goal in their last 5 road games. If anything, even on the road Reggina allow very little scoring chances to their opponents. Reggina allow the 4th least shot attempts on net and that will go a long way against an anaemic Ascoli attack. Ascoli should be credited with their defensive play if anything. Last week offensive powerhouse Inter only scored once against them and the week prior Palermo only scored once as well. This one too should be a low scoring affair.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.70 (Centrebet)
Inter 3-2 Milan
I'm going to disagree with the books here and say that this will be a high scoring game or at least see it go over 2.5 goals. Yes both are sound defensively, but both midfields create and work hard. Speaking of creating, these two attempt the 1st and 2nd most shots on goal in Serie A. Milan have gone over 2.5 goals in their last 7 games and with all the offensive names on the field its tough to think these two will not score more than 1 each. Inter do not allow many goals at home, but some of those games were against offensively challenged teams such as Ascoli, Parma and Livorno. In their home encounter with Roma they lost 3-2, and Milan can certainly create more than Roma.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 4/10
Odds: 2.10 (Pinnacle Sports)
Roma 1-2 Palermo
Palermo attempt the 3rd most shots on net, while Roma attempt the 4th most. Furthermore, both teams are currently struggling as Roma have 1 win in their last 4 games and Palermo's last win was 6 games ago against bottom feeders Lecce and you would have to go back to Week #4 to find the last time Palermo grabbed 3 points. Point being both teams are of the offensive mould and both are struggling for 3 points. Both defences are iffy at best and both midfields like to attack and counterattack. I think we might just get a game in which the last team to score wins.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.90 (Interwetten)
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