|
|
|
|
||
|
Home
|
Analysis Serie A: 2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 19, Returned = 20.79, Yield = + 9.42%
Milan 3-1 Siena
Milan opened up the season with a 1-1 draw to new promoted Ascoli. In all fairness, Milan did dominate that game driving 17 shots towards the net but couldn't score more often. Siena opened up the season at home with a 2-1 win over Cagliari, in a game that saw Cagliari go down to 10 men for the last 15 minutes. Cagliari are poor travellers and to see them score on the road tells me Siena might just be in trouble here today. Milan, if their heads on on straight, should dominate this one and win by at least 2 goals. NO BETS.
Palermo 3-2 Inter
Perhaps this one might be the upset of the weekend! Palermo are a young gutsy team that added former Chievo coach, Del Neri in the off season. In their opener Palermo went to Parma and tied 1-1 in a game that they mostly outplayed Parma in. Inter, beat newly promoted Treviso 3-0 thanks to a hat trick by Adriano. Treviso were playing very well and at times seemed to give Inter problems until Inter scored their second goal. For this one however, Inter have a lot of defensive problems! Samuel is out and so is Zanetti. Mihajlovic and Bordisso will be game time decisions, but from what I'm reading they will most likely sit out, which means no back 4 for Inter. Figo and Stankovic played mid week with their national teams, and there is even talk that coach Mancini might sit Adriano out for this one or give him limited time because Inter play a cup game in Slovakia midweek! Given Inters defensive problems you can bet a smart coach like Delneri, will capitalize and most likely do what he did when he coached Chievo and played against Inter and that is attack along the flanks, and push his midfield forward. Del Neri has a very good record against Inter, and given that Palermo have 4 players on the Italian national team. This gives Del Neri a little more than he had with Chievo. Perhaps Palermo wont win, but i don't think they will lose either.
Bet: Palermo +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.97 (Pinnacle)
Treviso 0-1 Livorno
Treviso debuted in Serie A with a loss to Inter which was pretty much expected. I don't look for them to accomplish too much this year for two reasons. #1: They are a first year team in Serie A, with basically Serie B talent. Secondly, they do not have a home stadium because theirs is not up to Serie A standards, which means all their home game will be played in Padova! Livorno won in their season opener 2-1 against Lecce and last seasons Serie A top scorer Lucarelli scored in that one too. Lucarelli was involved in a verbal agreement to sign with Tottenham during the off week, but Livorno blocked the trade and rumours in Italy are that he isn't too happy. Either way, Livorno have a little too much fire power up front with Lucarelli and Italian under 21 sensation Palladino for Treviso to counter with. Treviso are playing their first Serie A home game and the emotion alone could keep them around in this one. If pressed id lean towards a draw. NO BETS.
Messina 2-2 Fiorentina
Fiorentina did themselves wonders by signing Luca Toni in this off season. Toni scored in his first game for the viola and also netted 3 mid week against Belarus for Italy. One strange thing however IMO, was that Toni already had 2 goals at the half and Italy were up 3-1. He came on the second half and scored again and actually played almost 3/4 of the game, which i find really weird. Fiorentina won their opener 2-1 against Sampdoria attempting 22 shots and landing 11 of them on net. Messina lost to Lazio 1-0, but dominated from start to finish and were very unlucky not to get points. These two teams have met 7 times in total and 6 of those have been draws. Don't see why this one should be different as Fiorentina wouldn't mind a draw, and Messina will take points when they can. NO BETS.
Chievo 1-0 Parma
Parma tied in their season opener to Palermo but Palermo basically had their way and came up short. Parma were probably the worst travelling team in Serie A last season and going to Chievo will not be easy. Chievo lost to Juventus in their first game and landed zero shots on net. Not interest in this one as any possibility is possible. NO BETS.
Empoli 0-4 Juventus
Juventus will play mid week in a Champions League game against Club Brugges so many starters will be rested here, or see limited time. Their goalie Buffon is still out, Del Piero will also sit this one out along with Thurman, and Ibrahimovic, will see limited time. Juventus obviously have quality talent on the bench, but playing on the road with a CL game in mid week is not a situation I would like to back them in. They have a lot more talent than Empoli, but I cannot see Juventus being too aggressive here. I cannot see Empoli scoring and I cannot see Juventus scoring 3 so I will lean to this one staying under 2.5 goals possibly looking at a 1-0, 1-1, or 2-0 game!
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.78 (Expekt)
Lecce 0-0 Ascoli
Another game to sit and watch rather than to wager on. Ascoli shocked many when they tied Milan 1-1, while Lecce lost to Livorno 2-1. Ascoli were out played by Milan, so you don't really know what to expect from them. NO BETS.
Roma 0-1 Udinese
Interesting game here mainly due to a name you might not recognize!
Spalletti. Spalletti coached
Udinese last season and lead them to the Champions League only to
be replace by Cosmi. Roma players are saying that it was
Spalletti that made Udinese while Udinese players are saying that
Spalletti was a good coach but they were a talented team.
Talented or not, Udinese have lost a couple of key components from
last season and I'm not too sure they will even finish mid table.
In their season opener they barley won at home 1-0 to newly
promoted Empoli and now they are expected to go to Rome against
their old coach, and also know that they play a CL game on
Wednesday. Roma won in their opener 3-0 in Reggina, but I
wouldn't take that one too seriously as Reggina will most likely
end up in Serie B next season. Tough game to call, especially
if Udinese want points and decide to play 9 men back.
Obvious choice is Roma, but sometimes the obvious choice isn't the
right one. NO BETS.
Sampdoria 3-2 Reggina
Reggina lost in their home opener 3-0 to Roma. You would figure for a season opener you would be ready and have the proper players in order, but Reggina will make 4 changes to their line up for this one. Those 4 changes IMO, will only confuse players who haven't played with each other yet. Sampdoria lost in their season opener to Fiorentina, but I expect big things from Fiorentina this season, so i see no shame in that 2-1 loss. Sampdoria will win here, but there isn't much value on the price. Taking them on the Asian of (-1) would return our stake in case they win by 1. Surely worth taking a shot at when considering this is their first home game.
Bet: Sampdoria -1 (Asian
Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 2.00 (IASbet.com)
Cagliari 1-1 Lazio
Lazio were very lucky to beat Messina 1-0 after Messina pretty much dominated the game. Lazio allowed Messina to attempt 20 shots, at home. No telling how many Cagliari will attempt after being the 3rd best home team last season. Cagliari fired their coach after only the first game and rehired their old coach, Arrigoni. Talk about hard times. Cagliari should win this one, but the thing holding me back from wagering is that they are paying too well. As strange as that sounds I feel like I'm being set up for a draw. NO BETS
|
Partners:
|