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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Serie A:
2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 197, Returned = 202.15, Yield = + 2.61%
Very tough to pick a side with these two bottom feeders but i do find value in this one staying under 2.5 goals. Treviso are only in Serie A because of a pre season scandal and even though they are carrying a future superstar in Tavano. They have only managed 4 goals in their last 7 games. Ironically the 3 teams they've played in their last 3 games allow the 5th most and 6th most shots per game, those teams being Fiorentina, Sampdoria and Siena, yet Treviso have not seen the scoring sheet in 2 of those 3 games. I don't expect them to do any damage when they travel to the island of Cagliari because despite Cagliari's poor performance so far, they allow the 4th least shots against in Serie A. Defensively Cagliari are decent, but in attack they are terrible. Cagliari have only scored 2 goals in their last 6 games and although they have played some decent defensive teams such as Chievo and Livorno, I still cannot see them scoring more than 1 or 2 here. Treviso will look for a draw, because its better than a loss. Cagliari will look for all 3 points but will find the going tough as Treviso are a counter attacking team and NOT an attacking team so I can see Treviso play a defensive game and looking for a chance to attack on the counter.
I must admit I am very surprised and what Chievo have done so far this season. The flying donkeys have 4 wins, 4 draws and only 2 losses and those 2 losses were to Juventus (1-0) and Inter (1-0). Actually amazing when you think Chievo can hold Inter and Juventus to only 1 goal each!! Chievo's last loss was 6 games ago and I find a lot of value in backing them here. Siena are alright when moving forward, but defensively they allow too many shots. Not to say that Chievo take a lot of shots but the opportunities will be there for them to do so. To make matters worse, Siena are without their best defensive player in Tudor and will also have to do without Foglio and Marazzina, two other starters. I look for Chievo not to lose here and perhaps a draw might be the final outcome.
Both of these two played mid week cup games and both lost. Advantage Milan however as they are much deeper. Many will not know about this and in time it will be out in the papers but there seems to be a little bit of a rift between Udinese players and their coach Cosmi. Cosmi has changed the Udinese team from a 3 player attacking team to a two player attacking team and that is something that isn't sitting well with the players. Udinese have only 1 goal in their last 3 games played and have no wins in their last 4 Serie A games and last 5 overall games. Defensively they are still decent , but if you cannot score you cannot win and going to San Siro isn't the place to look for your non existent offence to appear. Milan come off a mid week Champions League loss but perhaps that might be due to their thrilling win over Juventus last week. Milan will come back to earth for this one and really bare down. They need 3 points as they know Juventus should take care of Livorno. Shevchenko will be back for this one and Milan not only attempt the most shots on goal in Serie A, but also allow the least attempts. Milan have the ability to "outscore" opponents and we will se that again here. In Milan's 5 home games this season they have allowed 4 opponents to score 1 goal against them. Only Lazio were shutout. If that holds true here, we should see Milan win 3-1? I for one don't see Udinese scoring at all, but I do see Milan scoring 2.
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