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Analysis Serie A: 2003/2004: Staked = 350, Returned = 382.21, Yield = + 9.20%
2004/2005: Staked = 734, Returned = 702.99, Yield = -4.22%
2005/2006: Staked = 187, Returned = 159.58, Yield = -14.66%
Chievo 0-0 Treviso
I'm not very big on supporting Chievo as a favourite, as I would much prefer them as underdogs. Chievo have looked good in their 3 wins and their only losses coming to Inter and Juventus both 1-0. Chievo also looked very good last week in travelling to Sampdoria and knocked them off 2-1. At first glance this game would seem like a "banker" but one must look at Treviso a little closer. Surely trying to back a team that has zero points in their 5 games and a goal differential of 1-11, is not something i would try to do, but Treviso do have some upside to them. Treviso were ready to start the season in Serie B and didn't find out until August that they were going into Serie A. At that time they scrambled to sign players of Serie A calibre and pretty much signed anyone they could. Five weeks into the season they are still not looking like they belong in Serie A , but in their defence they are slowly starting to gel. If that weren't enough, Treviso's home stadium was deemed not of Serie A standards and all their home games are played on a neutral field in Padova. This game on Saturday has Chievo as the home side playing in Verona but Padova is only about 55km away and Treviso will have a lot of supporters. Treviso have also played some pretty tough teams in Milan, Sampdoria, Lazio and Inter. Their only disappointing loss was to Livorno and you might want to note that Livorno have only allowed 1 goal all season that one being in week #1 and from then have 4 straight clean sheets, so perhaps Treviso are a little better than most would think? Chievo, for all their efforts this season still attempt the least shots on net in Serie A, while defensively allow very little attempts. This game to me has the makings of a low scoring affair one in which I think Treviso will frustrate Chievo and possibly look for a 1-0 win or even a draw. Backing a side is tough but I do see value in back the total to stay under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.75 (Interwetten)
Udinese 3-0 Lazio If you count Udinese's cup loss in mid week, they have now lost 4 straight. Losing to Barcelona on the road whoever, isn't anything to be ashamed of. Udinese started going down hill 4 games ago when their top scorer and main striker Iaquinta was suspended by their team president for not signing a contract extension. Once he didn't play the Udinese offensive game plan was out the window. For this one all you need to know is that Iaquinta is back and will start upfront with Di Natale. Lazio don't seem to have much on paper but have been an early season surprise having 3 wins 1 draw and their only loss coming to Milan. That record IMO, is a bit misleading however. In their season opener they beat Messina, but were lucky and were actually out shot 20-9. Their other win came against newly promoted Treviso, which I've touched upon in the above write up. Last week they beat a very good Palermo team 4-2, after being down 2-0. That was pretty impressive, but in that game they were out shot 16-9 and Palermo seem to break down a little, perhaps thinking they had it in the bag and had their thoughts on their mid week cup game? Either way, I don't think Lazio are talented enough to travel to Udine and give them a go. Having said that, I don't like the price on Udinese either. NO BETS.
Milan 2-1 Reggina
This game should be totally one sided and at home, I cannot see Milan losing. Reggina started the season off in bad form and have had better results in their last 2 games but those games are some what misleading. Last week they beat Udinese 2-0, but Udinese were without Iaquinta and Udinese are in a slump losing their last 4 games. The week prior they looked decent losing to Palermo only 1-0, but Palermo should have had 3 in that one. Milan played a cup game mid week, so they will go with many second stringers here, but should still have enough to win here. Payout however is terrible and I don't like backing Milan at -1.5 on the Asian. NO BETS.
Messina 1-4 Sampdoria
Messina are still looking for their first win of the season as they have 3 draws and 2 losses. Despite their record, they have been a lot better than one would think. In 4 of their 5 games one can make a good case for their efforts. They opened up the season losing to Lazio 1-0 but out shot them 20-9. Game 2, they tied a very good offensive team in Fiorentina 2-2. Game 3, they tied Cagliari 1-1 and Cagliari were a top 3 home team in Serie A last season. Game 4, they tied a tough Livorno team 0-0 and Livorno have only allowed 1 goal in 5 games. Sampdoria have looked up and down so far in this young season. Last week they go and lose at home to Chievo 2-1, but earlier in the season they beat Milan 2-1. Tough to pick a winner here although, Messina would be my choice if i had to make one. Chances are this one might end up in a draw as 4 of the last 6 times that these two met, it has ended that way. NO BETS.
Palermo 2-2 Empoli
What can you say about Empoli? Offensively they didn't score a single goal in their first 3 games and defensively they allow the 3rd most shot attempts. Palermo are not the team they want to meet right now as they attempt the 3rd most shots on goal in Serie A. Palermo have not missed a beat from where they left off last season and many thought they would when they sold Luca Toni in the off season. Former Chievo coach, Del Neri has them playing a style he likes and they are doing it very well. As mentioned, offensively they create many chances. In their first 5 games they have attempted in order 16, 23, 19, 17 and 16 shot attempts, some against top notch teams such as Inter. I cannot see Empoli competing here, especially on offence. Palermo should win but the payout isn't the best. Backing them on the Asian handicap of (-1) makes sense however as we get refunded in case they only win by 1 goal.
Bet: Palermo -1 (Asian
handicap)
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 2.07 (Expekt.com)
Lecce 3-0 Cagliari
Cagliari have always had a reputation of being terrible on the road. This season they've only played 2 road games and lost them both 2-1 to Siena and 3-1 to Empoli. Can't see them somehow turning it on against a Lecce team that are terrible offensively, but have home field advantage in this one. Lecce fired their coach Gregucci last week and will now have a new one for this game. Players usually like to try and impress their new coach first chance they get and I'm sure that is what Lecce players will aim for here. As mentioned, offensively Lecce have been terrible scoring only 2 goals and having been shut out in three games. Perhaps their new coach will let them loose offensively here, since Cagliari might not be able to match them goal for goal, but i think we might see a low scoring boring game. Cagliari are without 2 starters, Abeijon and Suazo, who contributes to their offence. I see something like a 1-1 or 2-0 game here.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 4/10
Odds: 1.86 (Pointbet)
Ascoli 3-1 Parma
I think id rather watch paint try then to watch any of this match. Parma are terrible on the defensive side of the ball allowing the most attempts on goal. Ascoli have done very well in their first year in Serie A, holding Milan to a 1-1 draw and barely losing to Juventus 2-1. Point being however, is that combined these two have only 1 win between them. Ascoli have 3 draws and 2 losses, while Parma have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses. Logic would dictate a draw here. NO BETS.
Roma 2-3 Siena
I might be the only one crazy enough to think Roma will have their way with Siena here. Siena are a terrible defensive team that lack a midfield and this season have allowed some big goals in giving up 2 to Messina, 3 to Milan and 2 to Palermo. Cant see why Roma cannot score 2 or 3 as well here. Cassano is available for Roma, while Mancini and Cufre are still out. Roma have a solid attacking game and have been known to be better offensively at home. This season they attempt the 4th most shots on net, while allowing the 6th least. Siena attempt the 3rd least while allowing the 5th most. IMO, Roma should win this one but the payout isn't worth it. Backing them on the Asian handicap of (-1) however does have some value as we get refunded in case they do win by only 1 goal. I see something like a 3-1 or 4-2 win.
Bet: Roma -1 (Asian
handicap)
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 2.00 (Expekt.com)
Fiorentina 3-2 Livorno
The big derby of Tuscani will see a very gifted offensive side in Fiorentina against a defensive minded Livorno team. Livorno coach Donadoni has been telling the Italian papers how his team will shut down Fiorentina striker Luca Toni, somthing that only Inter has managed to do so far this season. Livorno have 3 wins and 2 draws so far and as mentioned most of that is credited to their defensive style. They allow the 3rd least attempts on goal and in their 5 games this season they've only allowed 1 goal and that on opening day. Fiorentina have been able to score pretty much at will but that stopped last week when they lost 1-0 to Inter in a game that could have been 4-0. Inter out shot Fiorentina 26-7 and that was flattering IMO. Fiorentina will surely go for 3 full points and try to hand Livorno its first loss, while Livorno will go for the draw and try to pull off the upset with a goal on the counter attack. I think once this one is over we will have seen a tough defensive battle, mostly in the midfield and if anyone scores, that 1 goal might just win it. At worse a 1-1 draw, but backing the under seems logical to me.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.86 (Pinnacle Sports)
Juventus 2-0 Inter
Not really sure of either teams line ups as of this writing because both played mid week cup games. Last week as mentioned Inter dominated Fiorentina beating them 1-0. Juventus went into their game with Parma playing mostly second stringers, but coach Capello, quickly unloaded some of their bombers on the bench (Ibrahimovic, Nedved, etc) when Parma went up 1-0. Juventus won that won 2-1, and that 1 goal allowed was only their 2nd of the season. As much as most consider Inter a great offensive team with players such as Adriano, defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets with their only blunder being a 3-2 loss to Palermo. This one is like two heavy weight boxers both afraid of being knocked out. I'm not sure if Inter are on the same level as Juventus if Juventus are on their game. I think this one will be played between the two 18 yard boxes, with not a lot of offence and if it doesn't end up in a draw, then the team scoring first will win.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.75 (Noridicbet.com)
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