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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 384, Returned = 348.17, Yield = -9.33%
Aston Villa 0-0 Arsenal
Aston Villa have shown decent form over the past couple of matches, but will have to improve again to get anything out of this game. It looked too easy for Fulham to score against them. Arsenal have played better in their away games than the results indicate, but still look a little vulnerable when teams play in a physical way. Looking at the odds on this game, Arsenal just seem a little too short, although they have to be fancied to win. Villa will have a bit more confidence after winning their last home game against Everton 4-0, so can't be ruled out here. The odds look to be about correct though, as Arsenal do seem to be showing more like their true form. No bets.
Charlton 2-0 West Ham
Charlton have been simply awful in recent weeks. A win against Sunderland is the only positive for them recently, but then everyone beats Sunderland. They may be slightly fresher than West Ham after their Boxing Day match was called off though. West Ham's away record is surprisingly good for a newly promoted team, while Charlton's home record is very poor. Despite Charlton probably being fresher, they are impossible to bet on at the moment. In fact, opposing them is a good value bet. Also, with the way Charlton are defending, it looks like there will be goals in the game. West Ham also tend to play in a positive way.
Bet: West Ham +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 2.02 (Expekt)
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 2.10 (VC Bet)
Chelsea 2-0 Birmingham
Chelsea will probably win as usual, but they do seem to be struggling a bit lately. Birmingham have played a little bit better in the past couple of games, but it would still be a big surprise if they avoided defeat here. No bets stand out really though for this one.
Tottenham 2-0 Newcastle
Tottenham will be a popular bet here, but I think when both teams have their strongest teams on the pitch, Newcastle are the better team. However, they do have a few injury and suspension problems at the moment. They didn't play on Boxing Day though, so will have rested more than Tottenham. I wouldn't back Tottenham at the available odds, but Newcastle also do not win enough away games. It looks to be priced about right, but if I was to place a bet I'd be laying Tottenham. Newcastle are missing a couple of players though, so I will leave it.
Liverpool 1-0 West Brom
After Liverpool's long run of victories, no one will give West Brom much chance here. West Brom though do have strikers who can pose a bit of a threat if Liverpool are below their best. I'm not saying Liverpool won't win, but their odds are too short. Despite their run of wins, their good form could well be short-lived and I don't believe that they are a team to be relied upon to win at short odds just yet. West Brom have no away wins and only 3 away goals, so no bets on this one.
Manchester United 4-1 Bolton
Manchester United are still a little vulnerable in midfield and defensively. They have had a decent set of results in recent weeks, but Birmingham showed that they are not quite playing as well as they could. Bolton are an awkward opponent who will have had more rest. Manchester United should still win this game, but their away record has been better than their home record this season. I just get a feeling they may struggle a little here, so wouldn't take the short odds on a home win. No bets here.
Middlesbrough 0-0 Manchester City
Middlesbrough have been very, very poor recently. Their home record all season has been awful, as they have even lost to Sunderland at home. Straight away, I would rule out betting on Middlesbrough. Manchester City are usually a tough team to play against, but they managed to concede 4 goals at Wigan in their last away game, so need to improve defensively. They did play quite well against Chelsea though. The potential is there for Middlesbrough to do well, but they consistently under-perform. I have a feeling Middlesbrough might just edge this, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Portsmouth 1-0 Fulham
Fulham's form is very decent, but they are just conceding too many goals. I don't think that there is much doubt that Fulham are a better team than Portsmouth at the moment, but Fulham have not won away this season still. They pushed Chelsea close and also scored some good goals against Aston Villa, yet managed to concede 3 goals in each game. It's a difficult game to assess, with all 3 results looking possible. Fulham's away record puts me off taking them.
Sunderland 0-1 Everton
Everton have been destroyed in the last four games. The defeat against West Ham could've been heavier, then they managed to lose 4-0, 4-0 and 3-1. The pressure is all on Everton because Sunderland look doomed and have nothing to lose. Sunderland will be fresher than Everton as they've only played one match in the past three weeks, and even managed to avoid defeat against Bolton. Neither team exactly inspires confidence though! Everton have a couple of suspensions, while Sunderland are unbeaten in one game and are fresher! I wouldn't suggest anyone bets on Sunderland though, as they win so infrequently. I wouldn't have any great confidence in taking Everton to win either, so it's a game best ignored!
Wigan 0-3 Blackburn
Wigan continue to do very well against all but the very best teams in the league. Looking at the odds for this game, the bookmakers are starting to finally give them some respect. That also removes some of the value that has been available by taking them to win in previous games though. Blackburn didn't have a game on Boxing Day which does give them a bit of extra rest, which may play a part. Wigan may well win, but their odds are not quite high enough to tempt me, but I wouldn't want to oppose them either.
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