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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 322, Returned = 306.97, Yield = -4.67%
Arsenal 3-0 Blackburn
Arsenal have been returning to something like their best form in recent weeks, and have a superb home record all season so far. Blackburn have had the odd very good performance recently, such as against Charlton, but do not have a fantastic away record this season. Arsenal have to be favoured to win this as they have all of their players available, bar the problems they have at left-back. Arsenal struggled a fraction against Wigan, but still scored some very good goals. They should win here and are worth supporting.
Bet: Arsenal
Stake: 9/10
Odds: 1.36 (Blue Square)
Aston Villa 1-0 Charlton
Aston Villa have been really struggling in recent weeks, but picked up a very important win at Sunderland last week to take the pressure off them a little. That probably had more to do with how poor Sunderland are than any great improvement from Aston Villa, so a home win here can't really be a good bet. Charlton have slipped a little recently from their early season form, but will still present a difficult test for Aston Villa. Looking at the game, Villa do not lose that often at home and were slightly unlucky to lose to a dubious penalty against Liverpool. It looks like the odds are approximately correct, so no bets here.
Manchester City 0-1 Liverpool
Liverpool are still not a convincing team away from home. They needed a dubious late penalty to help them get the better of Aston Villa, and are still struggling to score as many goals as they should be. Manchester City will be well up for this game and will make it very hard for Liverpool. They will also be slightly fresher as Liverpool put a lot of effort into drawing with Betis in midweek to ensure they may the next round of the Champions League. I wouldn't bet on Liverpool to win, and they are probably worth opposing against a Manchester City team that are not easy to beat, and the best way to do it would be the Asian Handicap.
Bet: Manchester City +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.85 (Premierbet)
Sunderland 0-1 Birmingham
This could well be the biggest game of the week. Sunderland are looking doomed to relegation already, but could possibly ignite a revival by winning here. Birmingham too are really struggling and need to start picking up points sooner rather than later. Their away form is actually better than their home form, and one thing is clear: they do have much better players than Sunderland. Sunderland best player Arca is also very doubtful for this game and probably won't start. Birmingham will also have a few of their injured players ready to return, especially since their game with Bolton was called off last week. Sunderland's home record is worse than Birmingham's away record. Taking Birmingham on the level ball Asian Handicap seems an excellent bet.
Bet: Birmingham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 9/10
Odds: 2.08 (Pinnacle Sports)
Wigan 1-2 Tottenham
Wigan's superb run was ended by Arsenal last week, but no one can say that they played badly in that game. Arsenal were severely tested and scored some very good goals to win the game. Tottenham game are usually close, they've only had one league game this season with 3 or more goals. They haven't been getting on the right side of things recently, as they have not won any of their last 4 games. The odds on Under 2.5 goals are understandably low, but probably still represent a decent bet. The game itself could go either way, and a draw would be no surprise.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 1.65 (Eurobet)
Portsmouth 0-2 Chelsea
At the time of writing, Portsmouth have just sacked manager Alain Perrin, with coach Joe Jordan looking like being in charge for this game. I think Perrin has been harshly treated, as Portsmouth have been playing OK, but this season have missed the goals of Yakubu. With a bit more luck, they could have picked up more points, and it must be remembered that Portsmouth are not bottom of the league, three teams are below them. Having said all of that, Portsmouth are in a bit of turmoil and are struggling for goals in most of their games this season. Playing Chelsea is not ideal for them, but at least they can go into the game without much pressure on them. Chelsea should win, but the odds are probably just slightly too low to bet on.
Everton 1-0 Newcastle
Everton looked to have turned the corner, but then got thrashed as West Brom last week. Newcastle have improved a lot in the past month, despite losing their last game to Chelsea. They could've had a penalty at 0-0 and were not disgraced in that game. Being without Shearer and Owen made it difficult for Newcastle there. Everton have a lot of new players this season, and some of them do not look to have settled yet. Newcastle have to be favoured here as they begin to get some of their top players coming back to fitness. Newcastle on the level ball Asian looks a good bet as Everton are struggling to win at the moment.
Bet: Newcastle +0 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 2.04 (Pointbet)
Fulham 2-1 Bolton
Fulham continue to play well without always getting the results that they deserve. They could easily have beaten both Wigan and Middlesbrough, but ended up losing both games in unfortunate circumstances. Maybe this is because Fulham do not really have to confidence to really believe that the can regularly win away from home. At home however they are a different proposition. Bar the game with West Ham, Fulham have played pretty well in every home league game this season. Bolton have a pretty solid away record this season, but coming off a European game in midweek, I wouldn't look to be betting on them here. Fulham are probably slightly over-priced, hence supporting them on the level ball Asian looks decent once again.
Bet: Fulham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.87 (Pointbet)
Middlesbrough 2-2 West Brom
After a pretty poor run in which they were struggling to score, West Brom beat Everton 4-0 last week. However looking at their away record, they have only scored one goal and picked up two points away from home. Middlesbrough have had some eventful home games, losing to Sunderland but beating Manchester United 4-1. Last week against Fulham it needed a couple of late goals to beat Fulham, which was a rather fortunate win. West Brom do have a few attacking players who can hurt Middlesbrough here so the home win looked a bit under-priced here. Middlesbrough are also coming off a European game in midweek so will probably be slightly less fresh than West Brom. I wouldn't go as far as opposing Middlesbrough here, but I wouldn't bet on them either, so no bets.
West Ham 1-2 Manchester United
Manchester United will have been disappointed to only draw with Villarreal in midweek, but the general form recently is pretty good. Away from home they have a very respectable record in the league this season. West Ham got a very good draw at Tottenham last week, courtesy of a last minute goal, so will come into this game full of confidence. Manchester United have played in an attacking way in their away games this season, while West Ham have promised to attack in their home games. The odds on Over 2.5 goals look pretty good on the face of it. Manchester United naturally should have the edge, but still look capable of conceding goals. They have to win this game, so that should ensure both sides get chances to score.
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 2.20 (Pointbet)
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