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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 568, Returned = 595.17, Yield = + 4.78%
Birmingham 1-0 Sunderland
All the pressure is on Birmingham here for what is probably their biggest game of the season. If they cannot beat Sunderland at home, they look likely to be relegated. A victory could be the start of a recovery which sees them survive. Sunderland can go into this game without any real pressure, as they are too far behind to realistically survive relegation this season. Under similar circumstances, they won at West Brom a few weeks ago. Birmingham have certainly improved lately, but I would not trust them to win this at fairly short odds as Sunderland have also given some decent performances lately. Given the must-win nature of the game for Birmingham, there is some value in going Over on the total goals market.
Bet: Over 2.25 goals
Stake: 3/10
Odds: 2.00 (Pinnacle Sports)
Blackburn 1-0 Arsenal
Arsenal won at Real Madrid in midweek when few people expected them to do so, but it is hard to work out whether that will serve as a massive boost for them going into this game, or whether it will have taken a lot of energy out of them, making them vulnerable. Arsenal have a very good recent record against Blackburn, but given Arsenal's away record and Blackburn's home record, it is arguable whether they should even be favourites to win this game. Blackburn are only 1 point behind Arsenal in the league, and will be confident, having had some good results at home. They will also be much fresher than Arsenal having not played in midweek. However, Arsenal do have the better players, and there is no doubt that their confidence will have been boosted by the result in midweek. I think that the return of Toure gives Arsenal's defence much more strength, so I wouldn't want to oppose them here. I'm not ruling out a Blackburn win and they do have a lot of factors in their favour, but I have a feeling that Arsenal will do well here. However, betting on a team with so few away wins this season is probably unwise also. No bets on this one.
Charlton 0-0 Aston Villa
Aston Villa have unusually for them picked up more points away from home this season than they have at home, while Charlton's home and away records are pretty much identical. Statistics like they lead me to immediately rule out betting on Charlton to win here. Aston Villa have been hard to beat lately and could well take something out of the game. Having said that, backing them to win is maybe not such great value either, as they tend to draw a lot. It looks like being a close, low-scoring game, but then the odds on Under 2.5 goals reflect that. Charlton probably have a slight edge, but I don't really see any bets I'd like to take on this game.
Chelsea 2-0 Portsmouth
Most people would be extremely surprised if Chelsea did not win here. Then again, most people would've said that there was very little chance of Chelsea losing 3-0 at Middlesbrough. The Champions League defeat in midweek must have had an effect on the Chelsea morale, as it was obvious that that competition was a major priority for them this season. They're not out of it, but the manner of the defeat will have hurt. Since Redknapp returned to the club, Portsmouth's away league results are: 1-3, 0-4, 1-2, 0-5 and 0-2. They were absolutely battered in some of these games, and could've conceded even more goals. Despite taking the lead against Tottenham and Blackburn, they still lost both games. Several new players are taking time to settle, but will they begin to play better before it is too late? Doubtful. Portsmouth are available at odds of 18 to win here and that is probably a fair reflection of their chances. Chelsea would normally be a good bet here, but after the midweek result, they are probably best avoided at very low odds here.
Newcastle 2-0 Everton
Newcastle have certainly improved their level of performance in the last few games, but without Owen they can labour to score goals, as was the case against Charlton in midweek. Everton are one of the more in-form teams in the league and are not conceding many goals at the moment. As a result, I think betting on Newcastle to win isn't the best bet by a long way. Everton have won five of their last eleven games by a 1-0 scoreline. A small bet on this happening here is reasonable value under the circumstances.
Bet: Newcastle 0-1 Everton (correct score)
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 9.69 (Pinnacle Sports)
Liverpool 1-0 Manchester City
Liverpool have a couple of injuries coming off their Champions League defeat in midweek, so may find this game fairly tough going. Manchester City's away record is nothing to shout about, but I think they can certainly trouble Liverpool here. They are fresh and have played pretty well in the last few games. Manchester City were excellent against Aston Villa in the FA Cup last week, and it was amazing that they almost lost. They'll need to take their chances better here, but are worthy of support on the Asians.
Bet: Manchester City +1 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 1.79 (Expekt)
Bolton 2-1 Fulham
It is quite a regular occurrence for Fulham to play well away from home but lose. Three points in thirteen away games this season tells its own story. Defending is a problem for Fulham as they can often look good in possession, but then they give silly goals away. Now is probably a good time to play Bolton, given that they had a tiring UEFA Cup defeat in midweek and also have a few injuries. Having said that, Bolton are the sort of team that Fulham do not like playing against. Bolton will try to defend well, and will hit balls into Fulham's box hoping for a mistake. Fulham must defend better than usual to get anything from this game. They have failed so often away from home this season that I am not prepared to risk them here. Bolton are too short to bet on also, so it's a no bet game.
West Brom 0-2 Middlesbrough
This is a massive game for West Brom. Birmingham play Sunderland the day before, and could be only three points behind by the time this game takes place. A quick look at West Brom's fixture list would make you worry about how many points they'll pick up in the remainder of the season. Middlesbrough may be a bit vulnerable after playing in the UEFA Cup in midweek. They have improved in the last couple of weeks, the return of Boateng being an important factor. I'm sure that Middlesbrough would take a draw here, so I wouldn't bet on them to win. That's not to say they won't, but their odds are too short. West Brom have struggled at times this season, but can throw in the odd good performance. Any result is possible here, so no bets.
A quick word on the Carling Cup Final : Manchester United are strongly favoured by the bookmakers and realistically should win. Wigan are certainly capable of springing a surprise though. The return from suspension of Roberts will help them a lot. No bets really stand out on the game though as it looks to be priced correctly pretty much.
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