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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 163, Returned = 141.88, Yield = -12.96%
Birmingham 2-2 Liverpool
Birmingham have lost all 3 home league games so far this season, and Liverpool have yet to concede a league goal, but I still wouldn't be rushing to back Liverpool here. Liverpool do seem to have progressed a little from last season, but are finding it really difficult to score goals. Such low odds on a team who have only scored 1 goal are probably not worth taking, as Birmingham do have the potential to be a decent team. It is hard to forget about some of Liverpool's very poor away performances last season. On the other side of the coin, is it wise to back a team who have lost every home game so far? Probably not. It will probably be a close, low-scoring game, but the bookmakers know this as there is little value in a bet on Under 2.5 goals.
Chelsea 2-1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa have played quite well at times recently, notably against Tottenham, but it cannot be forgotten that they were 3-1 down at half time against Wycombe in midweek. They certainly won't be able to score 7 against Chelsea in the second half if they find themselves in the same situation here. Chelsea are a strange team, they've enjoyed a bit of good fortune in some of the games this season, but their success can't all be put down to luck. They defend very well, which always gives them a chance to take advantage of any good fortune that comes their way. Aston Villa won't lie down here, and are the sort of team who could make it awkward for Chelsea. Whether they can make it awkward enough to stop Chelsea winning is another matter though. Chelsea just seem a fraction under-priced to me, but will probably win all the same.
Everton 0-1 Wigan
After being soundly beaten at Arsenal, Everton need to start winning quickly, and a game like this is one that they'll certainly be looking to win. Wigan have been ok in recent games though, and will certainly make it hard for Everton here though. There is no doubt that Everton have the better players, but confidence looks to be very low at the moment, which isn't helped by having a few players injured as well. The odds available on Everton just are not worth taking, as it looks like they'd struggle to beat anyone at the moment. In fact, taking Wigan not to lose seems a reasonable bet.
Bet: Wigan +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 4/10
Odds: 2.02 (Pinnacle Sports)
Manchester United 1-2 Blackburn Rovers
After drawing at Liverpool, this is game Manchester United need to win, considering Chelsea keep winning. Blackburn have looked decent in recent weeks, even against Newcastle. They'd probably had the better of the game before Newcastle scored their first goal. Blackburn will always struggle to score a lot of goals, so the key for them is to keep clean sheets. They'll adopt a defensive approach here, but my feeling from recent weeks is that they're not defending as well as at the end of last season. I think Manchester United will score here and should win, but with a few players injured, like Keane and Neville, they could be missing some leadership, so the odds on them are probably too low to bet on.
Newcastle 1-0 Manchester City
Manchester City have had a superb run in the league, but rather disappointingly lost to Doncaster in the Carling Cup in midweek. A couple of referees decisions didn't help them there though, so probably not too much should be read into that. Newcastle's confidence will have been boosted a lot by their win at Blackburn, but it isn't a formality that they will play well here. They were out-played for a lot of the game against Blackburn, but managed to get the first goal, which is always crucial. Newcastle are still missing a host of midfield players (Dyer, Emre, Solano and Luque), as well as Taylor suspended. As a result, they could be in for a difficult afternoon. Newcastle should still have the edge though, but the odds look about correct, so no bets here.
West Brom 1-2 Charlton
West Brom are a bit up and down at the moment, but will be very relieved to have got away with a draw last week against Sunderland. It was a poor performance from them overall though, so that rules out betting on them to win here for me. Charlton were going very well until losing to Chelsea, but then most teams are losing to Chelsea at the moment. It is debatable whether they should be fairly strong favourites to win here though. West Brom aren't too bad at home usually, and Charlton have probably over-achieved at the start of the season a little. Charlton do seem under-priced, but given my lack of confidence in West Brom, I don't really want to oppose them here.
West Ham 0-0 Arsenal
West Ham seem to have decided that the best way for them to succeed this season is by attacking, rather than playing for draws. Leaving themselves open to Arsenal's counter-attacks should make for a high-scoring game here, as Alan Pardew has promised to take the game to Arsenal. Arsenal's biggest weakness is probably their defence, although with Campbell fit again they do look much stronger there. West Ham have certainly impressed a lot of people with their start to the season, but playing the way they do seems to suit Arsenal down the ground. Arsenal should win this, and score a few goals along the way.
Bet: Arsenal
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.80 (Premierbet)
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 10/10
Odds: 2.00 (Expekt)
Bolton 1-0 Portsmouth
Everyone will be rushing to back Bolton here, and it is not hard to see why. There are rumours of discontent coming from Portsmouth, with certain players supposed to not get on too well with the manager. This coupled with a midweek cup defeat at Gillingham, means Portsmouth seem to be struggling a bit at the moment. Bolton haven't been fantastic themselves though, and often struggle a bit at home. They got absolutely battered at Manchester City, but somehow won with a last minute penalty. If they'd lost that game by 5 goals no one would've complained. Portsmouth did win at Everton recently and do have some decent player, so certainly can't be written off here. The odds on Bolton are too low to take on a team that isn't that superior to the opposition. No bets here.
Middlesbrough 0-2 Sunderland
Middlesbrough should win here, but they haven't been entirely convincing all season. They have looked vulnerable at times, such as when they lost 3-0 at home to Charlton. Sunderland have not been conceding lots of goals, so this game will probably be fairly close. Middlesbrough's odds are just a little too short to take on, as a draw is possible.
Tottenham 1-0 Fulham
Fulham have been playing OK recently, but do not win away from home regularly enough to take them here, even at quite high odds. Tottenham are struggling to score a little at the moment, but haven't been too bad defensively. Tottenham should have the edge, but the game looks to be priced correctly, so no bets here.
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