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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 218, Returned = 183.94, Yield = -15.62%
Blackburn 2-0 Birmingham
Birmingham have been a big disappointment this season, but probably have been worse at home than away. Blackburn can never be relied upon to win home games, so probably don't rate a great bet here. Birmingham are probably marginally the better team, so are probably worth a small bet on the Asian, as there is every chance of them at least avoiding defeat.
Bet: Birmingham +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 1.88 (Stan James)
Arsenal 1-0 Manchester City
Arsenal lost to West Brom last week, but as with their other two defeats (against Middlesbrough and Chelsea) they were a little unlucky, having played quite well. They will be missing Reyes, Campbell, Hleb, Cole and Ljungberg here though, which is going to be a bit of a problem. As it proved against West Brom, Arsenal's defence looked vulnerable without Campbell and Cole, so it is hard to recommend a bet on them to win at fairly low odds. Arsenal should win, but higher odds would be required to make it a good bet. Henry being back is a boost, but he probably isn't 100% fit yet.
Aston Villa 0-2 Wigan
At the start of the season, Aston Villa would have been at much shorter odds for this game. Wigan's impressive form is the main reason for the apparently generous odds on Aston Villa, but if you look more closely into it, you can see other reasons. Villa have a whole host of defenders out injured, which is not going to help their chances here at all. They did win at Birmingham last week, which will have given them a big boost, but they've only won 1 out of 4 home games so far. Wigan will lose more away games than they win, but now is perhaps not the best time to oppose them. They are not without a chance here, although it's only natural to favour Villa. No bets here.
Fulham 2-0 Liverpool
Fulham have played probably slightly better than their results indicate this season, but defensive lapses have often cost them. Liverpool just haven't scored enough goals or won enough games in the league so far. There remains a feeling that they take the Champions League more seriously than the league games. Fulham won't make it easy for Liverpool here, so immediately I can rule out recommending Liverpool to win. This is also because of their pretty poor away record last season. Fulham did OK at Charlton on Monday, and have to be the pick on the handicaps here.
Bet: Fulham +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.78 (Pinnacle)
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham
This corresponding fixture was a 0-0 draw last season, in the infamous game where Mendes' perfectly good goal was ruled out for Tottenham. That is the only time in the last 8 meetings between these teams that Manchester United have not won though. Such a poor head-to-head record for Tottenham probably means that Manchester United should not be opposed here. However, without Keane, Heinze and Neville, Manchester United appear to be lacking a bit of drive and leadership. Certainly Tottenham will never have a better chance against them. The odds look to be about correct though given the circumstances, so no bets here.
Portsmouth 1-2 Charlton
Charlton's excellent start to the season has just started to come to an end, with them losing against Tottenham after being 2-0 up, and also not playing that well in the 1-1 draw at home to Fulham last week. Portsmouth haven't been terrible in recent games, but they are struggling to win. In their 4 home league games this season they have drawn 3, which says that they are struggling to break teams down at times. The loss of Yakubu over the summer, means Portsmouth are finding it a bit harder to score. First impressions are that Portsmouth should possibly be marginal favourites still, so that probably rules out betting on Charlton here, although they do have a perfect record away from home this season. Portsmouth are showing signs of improvement, but it looks a game to avoid from a betting point of view.
Newcastle 3-2 Sunderland
This is probably a bigger game for Newcastle than for Sunderland. Newcastle simply cannot afford to lose at home to their biggest rivals, while Sunderland can probably play without too much pressure, as all the weight of expectation will be on Newcastle. The problem for Sunderland, is that probably their best player (Arca) is likely to miss the game. Newcastle have a few injured players also, but everything appears to rest on whether Owen is fit. Early reports suggest he will be, and they also have Emre and Solano available again. If Owen plays, I think Newcastle will win.
Bet: Newcastle
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.70 (Totalbet)
Bolton 2-0 West Brom
West Brom had been playing badly, then beat Arsenal last week. They were grateful to Kirkland for making several good saves though, and I still think that their recent form is poor. However, a result like that is bound to give West Brom confidence, which will make it harder for Bolton here. Bolton may well be slightly less fresh than West Brom having played in the UEFA Cup in midweek, so there is a chance for West Brom to do something in this game. Having said that, Bolton are a better team and should have the edge. The odds again look to be about right, so no bets here.
West Ham 2-1 Middlesbrough
West Ham have made a pretty impressive start to the season, although they were poor in their last game at Manchester City. Middlesbrough have been inconsistent all season, and do not look a team to rely on. They have performed better away from home than at home though, so they do have a chance to win a game like this. West Ham did lose a lot of home games to decent teams last season, so perhaps there is value in Middlesbrough here. Middlesbrough are a better team than West Ham, so taking them on the Asian is the best option here I think, as the odds are pretty good.
Bet: Middlesbrough +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 9/10
Odds: 1.78 (Premierbet)
Everton 1-1 Chelsea
If you look at the results of each team this season, this game would appear to be a certain Chelsea win. Everton do have a few players returning to their team though, so perhaps it will not be as easy as many people expect. The problem for Everton is that they have scored 1 goal this season in 9 games in the league. That is an amazing statistic for a team that finished fourth last season. The limit of Everton's ambitions here is likely to be a 0-0 draw. It is hard to make a case for Chelsea not winning really, as Everton have been so so poor. The odds on Chelsea aren't that appealing at the same time, but are perfectly understandable. No bets here, but Chelsea should win.
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