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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 64, Returned = 46.29, Yield = -27.67%
Manchester United 1-0 Aston Villa
Aston Villa have a pretty poor record at Old Trafford, and as a result most people would expect them to lose this game. I wouldn't be rushing to back Manchester United at the moment though, as they disappointed many times at the end of last season, and there isn't enough evidence just yet to suggest that they will be a lot better this season. They won't easily enough at Everton, but Everton did have their chances. Aston Villa aren't great away from home, but overall this is probably a game to leave alone.
Blackburn 2-1 Fulham
After ending last season pretty impressively, Blackburn were all over the place last week against West Ham. Add to that that Bellamy is unlikely to play here, and they do not look a good bet at fairly short odds. Fulham do not win away from home too often, but when they can field their strongest team, they look decent. This game promises to be competitive, but if anything, Fulham look the good value bet.
Bet: Fulham +0.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.84 (Pinnacle Sports)
Charlton 1-0 Wigan
Wigan impressed most people with their performance against Chelsea last week, while Charlton did well to win with 10 men at Sunderland. Wigan may be without Camara for this game, which leaves them looking pretty short in attack. Charlton usually start the season quite well, so Wigan probably aren't going to win this game. The bookmakers are giving them a little bit of respect due to the Chelsea game though. The best bet here is probably to look for a low-scoring game.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.91 (Pinnacle Sports)
Liverpool 1-0 Sunderland
Sunderland look to be in for a very difficult season after losing at home to Charlton last week. They have a few decent players, but none of their summer signings stand out too much. Sunderland look happy to bring in decent players, and probably expect to struggle. If Liverpool are to achieve anything this season, they have to be winning games like this one. They really should do so, so probably warrant a bet.
Bet: Liverpool
Stake: 10/10
Odds: 1.33 (Paddy Power)
Newcastle 0-0 West Ham
Newcastle couldn't have hoped for a more difficult start to the season, having to play Arsenal away from home. They did quite well, and only lost due to a sending off that has since been reversed, and a rather debatable penalty. A lot of people think Newcastle will struggle this season, and at the moment their attacking options do look a little limited. The rest of the team is pretty good though, and they should win games like this one. West Ham were impressive against Blackburn last week, but probably won't find it quite so easy here.
Bet: Newcastle
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 1.70 (William Hill)
Tottenham 2-0 Middlesbrough
Both teams here have ambitions to do very well this season. They may not say so, but both probably believe that they are capable of finishing 4th and qualifying for the Champions League. Middlesbrough looked average against Liverpool last week, and were pretty fortunate not to lose. Tottenham won well against Portsmouth, although the game wasn't easy. It is hard to read too much into those matches though, as Liverpool are expected to do well, while Portsmouth are expected to struggle. Maybe a draw against Liverpool is better than a draw against Portsmouth? Tottenham are not convincing, and have a few injury problems leading into this game though. They certainly look a little under-priced, which means there is some value with Middlesbrough on the Asian.
Bet: Middlesbrough (+0.5 Asian Handicap)
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 2.01 (Pinnacle Sports)
West Brom 2-1 Portsmouth
West Brom earned a decent point at Manchester City last week, and will go into this game looking to win. Portsmouth are a difficult team to assess at the moment. They have made a lot of changes over the summer, and some of the players brought in look pretty decent. How all of these new players will combine is hard to judge, and as a result Portsmouth may well be a little inconsistent in the early weeks of the season. Certainly West Brom probably aren't a great bet at this stage. Over the past couple of seasons, Portsmouth have been pretty poor away from home, so the odds on an away win don't really make much appeal either. All in all, it's pretty hard to argue with the odds for this game, and in that case, it's best not to bet.
Birmingham 1-2 Manchester City
These are two teams in the middle section of the league. It is unlikely either will be relegated this season, but it is also unlikely that either will make the top six. At the moment, I would give Birmingham the slight edge, but there isn't a great deal between the teams. Both drew 0-0 last week in pretty poor games, so it doesn't look like being a high-scoring game here. Birmingham should have the slight edge due to home advantage, but under Pearce, Manchester City have become harder to beat. Under 2.5 goals looks like a decent bet, but with low odds available on this, it's best to leave this game altogether.
Bolton 0-1 Everton
Both teams here enjoyed successful seasons last time, and both will find it pretty difficult to match those achievements this time around. Both teams are also fully committed, and difficult to play against, so this game probably won't be too pretty. Everton have played a couple of difficult competitive games so far, so it is hard to judge how they will do this season. They have made a few new signings, but at the same time have a couple of injuries. Bolton have pretty much the same squad as last season, with a couple of changes. Their 2-2 draw with Aston Villa was a bizarre game, with all of the goals coming very early, which also doesn't tell us a lot about the relative strengths of Bolton. Under 2.5 goals looks tempting on first glance, but the bookmakers know this too, so it's best to avoid that one. If forced to pick, I'd go for Bolton to edge this one, but Everton were impressive away from home last season, and may be again this time. No bets.
Chelsea 1-0 Arsenal
This is by far the biggest game of the weekend, and there will be an awful lot of interest in this, and probably an awful lot of money gambled on the outcome as well. Chelsea were unbeaten at home in the Premier League last season, but Arsenal came close to ending that record with an impressive performance at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have also not won a league game against Arsenal since 1995, a span of 19 games. Most of the current Chelsea players have not played in more than 3 or 4 of those winless games, so that historical factor probably doesn't have too great an effect on this game. It is sure to give Arsenal confidence though, as they know that they regularly get good results against Chelsea. The main worry for Arsenal I believe, is that their defence can be exposed due to the departure of Vieira and the injury to Campbell. This was perfectly illustrated in the 2-1 Community Shield defeat against Chelsea two weeks ago. Arsenal controlled large parts of the game, but a long ball down the middle twice caught out Senderos, who looks far too error-prone to be a top class defender. Arsenal will probably have a lot of possession in this game also, but they lack the direct option that Chelsea seem to use. Arsenal seem to try to make the perfect pass to score the perfect goal sometimes. Crosses in the air and direct balls are not part of the Arsenal style of play. If Arsenal get it right, they can beat any team in the world. Against a strong defence which shows discipline, Arsenal often have trouble. This game comes down to whether Arsenal can avoid making defensive mistakes which hand Chelsea the game. At Highbury against Chelsea last season for example, Arsenal had the better of the game, but gifted Chelsea two poor goals, which cost them victory. Both teams will probably not be too disappointed with a draw, and neither will want to lose at this early stage of the season. After saying all of this, from a betting point of view, as mentioned above, Senderos holds the key. If he can have an error-free game, Arsenal can win here. Chelsea were poor against Wigan, with Wigan having several chances to score. Chelsea will certainly give Arsenal more respect though, and will not give them the space to counter-attack that they gave to Wigan. Henry especially could make Chelsea pay if he is given that sort of space. Chelsea will fancy their chances, but I can't help thinking Arsenal may pull this off. A small bet at the high odds available on Arsenal is the value bet.
Bet: Arsenal
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 4.40 (Expekt)
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