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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 266, Returned = 245.32, Yield = -7.77%
Wigan 2-3 Arsenal
Wigan have been on absolutely amazing form, from a results point of view anyway. This will be a massive test for them, as Arsenal have Henry back now, which makes them a different proposition. The problem for Arsenal is that with Clichy now injured, they have no fit left-backs (Cole is a few weeks from returning). That will certainly weaken their defence a little. Another problem for Arsenal is that they have not won away from home this season in the league. They have had some bad luck in some games, but this will no doubt be in the back of their minds. I would expect Arsenal to win this, but I wouldn't really be looking to bet on them at the odds available. No bets really stand out from this game particularly.
Charlton 1-3 Manchester United
Charlton have had better results away from home than at home. Manchester United have picked up more points away from home than at home. These sort of statistics could point to taking an away win here, but you never quite know what you're going to get with Manchester United at the moment. Yes, they won against Chelsea, which was very impressive. However, it is hard to forget the performances against Middlesbrough and Lille just before that game. Without Neville, Heinze and Keane, they do miss some leadership on the field. Manchester United should certainly have the edge here, but I couldn't rule Charlton out of winning this game either. The odds are not quite high enough for me to take Charlton on the +0.5 Asian, but it is a close call. No bets here.
Chelsea 3-0 Newcastle
In the last couple of games, Newcastle have improved, while Chelsea have slipped below their usual level. That does not mean that Newcastle are going to win this game, because they do have a few injury problems still. Taylor is out, which will weaken their defence. Chelsea have won all 6 home games this season, scoring 18 goals. They usually find a way to win at home, even if the game isn't going well for them at the start. Newcastle are on something of a roll though, and I certainly wouldn't be rushing to back Chelsea at fairly short odds. Will Newcastle win? Probably not. However, they do not deserve such insulting odds, and are worth a very small gamble.
Bet: Newcastle
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 10.00 (Canbet)
Liverpool 3-0 Portsmouth
Liverpool have shown a few signs in their recent games of perhaps becoming slightly more consistent, particularly at home. They did get a bit of luck to win at Aston Villa though, and are not entirely convincing. Liverpool are certainly not a team you'd want to put your house on when they are a short-priced favourite at home. Portsmouth have not been getting great results, but I think the media have been trying to create a crisis when there isn't really one. Several people seem to want to get rid of Perrin, which is putting a bit of extra pressure on Portsmouth. There are even rumours he will be sacked if they lose this game, which seems a little harsh. The truth of the matter is that they've been playing OK and have been a little unlucky in certain games. Portsmouth are badly missing Yakubu this season, who scored a lot of goals for them. As a result, they are finding it harder to win, particularly at home. They may well make it awkward for Liverpool here, so are worth a small bet on the Asian Handicap.
Bet: Portsmouth +1 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 4/10
Odds: 2.19 (10Bet)
Manchester City 0-0 Blackburn
This is an interesting match, between two teams who play aggressively. Manchester City have been doing quite well at home this season, while Blackburn haven't been too great on the road. The odds look to be about right all things considered. Home advantage should give Manchester City the edge, because overall these teams are fairly evenly match. No bets.
Sunderland 1-3 Aston Villa
Both teams have been struggling badly for most of the season. They have won only 3 games between them so far. Aston Villa certainly have the better players and will finish above Sunderland at the end of the season, but at times, Sunderland have played quite well at home. They have been unable to finish teams off though, and this is their problem. Sunderland just lack that something extra to score goals against most teams. It will be a struggle for them, but they may well get some joy against an under-pressure Aston Villa. Just as easily, Aston Villa could win 4-0 though. Anything could happen here, so it's best to avoid placing any bets on it as far as I'm concerned.
West Brom 4-0 Everton
Everton have had a mini-revival, while West Brom are on a bit of a losing run in the league. Everton still don't look to be playing with a lot of confidence though, and will no doubt be hoping to somehow win 1-0 here. 8 out of 16 Everton games this season have finished 1-0 either way. With both teams struggling, a similar outcome looks possible here.
Bet: West Brom 1-0 Everton (correct score)
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 8.00 (Ladbrokes)
Bet: West Brom 0-1 Everton (correct score)
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 8.50 (UK Betting)
Tottenham 1-1 West Ham
Tottenham will have plenty of people willing to bet on them, but for me they are still too inconsistent. They have been receiving a lot of praise in the media, but other teams have done just as well having spent less money, yet get little or no praise. My point here is that Tottenham sometimes seem to believe the hype and think that they are better than they really are. They may well win this game, but West Ham will make it tough for them, and I wouldn't really want to be betting on Tottenham.
Middlesbrough 3-2 Fulham
Middlesbrough would fancy themselves to win here, but their home record is not as good as it should be. They did win 4-1 against Manchester United though, so it is hard to fully know what to expect from them. Fulham have played better than their results indicate and will be dangerous opponents for Middlesbrough. Away from home though, Fulham just do not pick up enough points. This makes it hard to oppose Middlesbrough, despite their sometimes indifferent home form. No bets on this one.
Birmingham P-P Bolton
Birmingham's home record is unbelievably bad: just 1 point from 6 games. This is amazing as teams usually depend on their home form to make sure that they do OK. Bolton won't be easy to play against as usual, and if Birmingham aren't up for this game or are feeling sorry for themselves, then Bolton will cash in. Having said all of that, my gut feeling here is that Bolton will not win this game. I fancy Birmingham to show some improvement and possibly even win. They do have decent players, who can't keep under-performing all season. However this is just a hunch, so I wouldn't really risk any money on Birmingham. It is enough to put me off Bolton though, so no bets here.
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