Home
ANALYSIS:
|
|
|
|
Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 598, Returned = 628.07, Yield = + 5.03%
Everton 4-1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa were completed out-played in their FA Cup match at Manchester City, and won't fancy this trip to Everton, who have been doing fairly well recently. Even considering Villa's record of not losing many away and Everton's 6 home defeats from 14 games, I'm not tempted by the fairly high odds on an away win here. Villa draw too many to take them to win, and I think they'd be fairly happy with a draw here. This game looks to be priced correctly, so no bets here.
Arsenal 3-0 Charlton
Arsenal had a superb week last week, with victories in the league over Fulham and Liverpool, as well as making it through in the Champions League. Campbell and van Persie are close to being fit for this game, which will also help them. My initial thoughts are that they will win this game with something to spare. Charlton were poor last week against pretty much a reserve Middlesbrough team, while Arsenal were good against Liverpool. Having said that, Charlton have managed 0-0 draws at Newcastle and Liverpool in their last two away games, so will be aiming for another here. The odds are short, but Arsenal should have enough to win.
Bet: Arsenal
Stake: 10/10
Odds: 1.40 (Stan James)
Blackburn 3-2 Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough are playing well at the moment, and despite making nine changes to their team, were unlucky to lose at Charlton last week. Blackburn at home though have been superb this season. The odds on Blackburn look a little low though, assuming Middlesbrough play their strongest team, as looks likely. Blackburn are playing with confidence at home though, and will be the fresher team. I wouldn't back them at the available odds, but opposing them also isn't wise probably. It looks to be priced about right, so no bets.
Bolton 2-0 Sunderland
Sunderland continue to struggle, and it is hard to see where their next win will come from. They have only avoided defeat in 6 out of 29 league games so far, which is a pretty poor record. Bolton have a good home record, and should win this. They did look a little below par in the FA Cup against West Ham though, so it is about decided whether they can win this as easily as the odds suggest. Bolton should of course win, but Sunderland may raise their game a bit under a new manager, and with a couple of players back from injury.
Manchester City 0-1 Wigan
Manchester City were very good in beating Aston Villa in midweek, while Wigan have just started to struggle a little bit in recent weeks. They have actually won more games away from home than at home this season though, so they can be a dangerous team on their travels. Manchester City are pretty good at home, but do have one or two injury problems going into this game. Wigan will be more rested as well, so this will be a close game. Manchester City have won their last seven home games though, so I wouldn't really be looking to oppose them here. Apart from the Carling Cup Final, Wigan's performances have been decent, even if they haven't won too many games recently. If I was going to bet on anything, it would be Manchester City, but the odds aren't quite high enough. Them having an FA Cup game on Monday is just enough to put me off.
West Brom 1-2 Manchester United
West Brom played quite well to draw with Birmingham and could have won, but now face a tough run of fixtures. Manchester United's recent results are pretty good, so they will certainly fancy themselves to win here. West Brom have had 8 home league defeats this season (only Sunderland have had more) so an away win seems the most likely result here. The odds do seem a little short though, as West Brom are more than capable of throwing in the odds good performance. For value alone, a small bet on them seems the call.
Bet: West Brom
Stake: 1/10
Odds: 8.00 (VC Bet)
West Ham 2-4 Portsmouth
Portsmouth's last minute winner against Manchester City last week was much needed as they continue their fight against relegation. They need to keep winning though, but won't find it easy at West Ham. West Ham were pretty impressive against Bolton in the FA Cup, but may well rest a few players here with their FA Cup quarter-final coming up on Monday. From a betting point of view, it is dangerous to bet on a team who may not take the game 100% seriously. Portsmouth have a few decent players, who could well take advantage if West Ham aren't fully concentrated. Portsmouth's recent away form is awful though, so it is hard to bet on them with any confidence. There are too many uncertain factors here to find any good bets.
Birmingham 0-2 Tottenham
Birmingham were a bit lucky to draw with West Brom last week, while Tottenham could have easily drawn at Chelsea. Birmingham's game with West Brom last week was such a massive game for them, that if they performed poorly there, they can perform poorly in any game. I'd have no confidence at all in taking any sort of bet on Birmingham here. I'm not saying that Tottenham are going to win though, as they have only won 4 away games all season. They seem to be priced correctly here, as they should have a slight edge on Birmingham. No bets on this one.
Newcastle 1-3 Liverpool
Newcastle have been doing pretty well at home recently, but most of the games have been against struggling teams. This is a much harder prospect, and if they perform as they did against Manchester United last week, they will surely lose. Newcastle lost that game 2-0, but if they had lost 6-0, they couldn't have said they didn't deserve it. They do tend to play better at home though, and have only suffered 2 home defeats this season. Liverpool don't win away from home as often as they perhaps should do, so both teams have a chance here. Baring in mind Newcastle's performance last week and the fact that Owen is still out, I think Liverpool will win.
Bet: Liverpool -0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 9/10
Odds: 2.10 (VC Bet)
Fulham 1-0 Chelsea
Fulham have picked up 29 points at home this season, and 3 points away from home. Therefore they can almost be regarded as two different teams, depending on whether they are at home or away. This is the better version of the Fulham team this week, so this promises to be an interesting game. Chelsea have not been quite at their best recently, but are still managing to win the majority of their domestic games. Given their record this season, and Arsenal's 4-0 win at Fulham two weeks ago, it is hard to oppose Chelsea here. At the same time, Fulham's home record is pretty impressive, so taking Chelsea at low odds to win probably isn't such a good bet either. Chelsea should certainly have the edge, but their odds are too short for me.
Partners:
Recommended
bookies:
Sporting Index
