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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 456, Returned = 448.2, Yield = -1.71%
Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United
Manchester City have struggled a bit in recent weeks, while Manchester United have suffered a lot of criticism for drawing with Burton Albion in the FA Cup. That game should have no baring on this one, as it was a reserve team that played most of the game. Manchester United's away record this season is pretty good, so they are rightly quite strong favourites to win the game. Manchester City strike me as a team who just lack a bit of experience in certain areas, although they can certainly trouble Manchester United here. From a betting point of view, the odds look about correct. I wouldn't back either team to win at the available odds, so no bets.
Arsenal 7-0 Middlesbrough
Arsenal have said that Campbell is likely to miss this game, which leaves their defence looking pretty weak. It would immediately make me rule out betting on Arsenal at short odds, as Toure, Eboue, Cole and Clichy are all going to be missing also. Middlesbrough have problems of their own with Southgate injury and Schwarzer putting in a transfer request. Their results this season have been poor, which is why Arsenal's odds are pretty short. Arsenal's attacking players are better than Middlesbrough's and they have home advantage, so as long as Arsenal don't make too many defensive errors, they should win. It is probably worth taking a bet on Over 2.5 goals, and also a bet on Middlesbrough on the handicaps.
Bet: Middlesbrough +1.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 5/10
Odds: 1.99 (Betinternet)
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Stake: 8/10
Odds: 1.87 (Pinnacle Sports)
Aston Villa 1-2 West Ham
Aston Villa have had a decent month or so, but a team with 3 home wins from 10 doesn't deserve to be at such short odds (unless they were playing Sunderland). West Ham have shown themselves to be capable of doing a lot better than many people expected this season, and won't be easy opponents for Villa. West Ham have been on a pretty poor run lately, but will have welcomed a bit of a rest after all of the festive fixtures. Hard to see a good bet from this match for me, as Villa should have the edge, but can't be trusted at fairly short odds.
Charlton 2-0 Birmingham
There remains a suspicion that Birmingham will improve and avoid relegation, but they need to start winning games regularly soon. Charlton, after an extremely good start to the season, are sinking like a stone. They have tried to change a few things, but cannot halt the decline. Birmingham have beaten Wigan, drawn with Manchester United and played OK against Chelsea in their last three league games. The fact that they were lucky to draw with Torquay in the FA Cup last week though, is not a good sign. It is tempting to oppose Charlton here. Only Sunderland have suffered more home defeat than Charlton, but Birmingham will need to improve from last week to think about winning this. No bets here.
Fulham 1-0 Newcastle
Newcastle have well documented injury problems, the most crucial of which is Owen. Fulham have a very good home record in the league. They did lose to Leyton Orient in the FA Cup, but as manager Chris Coleman said, that was more down to adopting a poor attitude than any lack of ability. Newcastle simply do not look likely to win here, so Fulham on the level ball Asian looks a very good bet. For those interested in correct scores, it must be noted that Fulham have won four of their last five home games 2-1.
Bet: Fulham +0 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 10/10
Odds: 1.76 (Pinnacle Sports)
Bet: Fulham 2-1 Newcastle (correct score)
Stake: 1/10
Odds: 10.15 (Pinnacle Sports)
Liverpool 1-0 Tottenham
Liverpool enjoyed a very good run of victories against most of the weaker teams in the league. They were a little fortunate to draw with Bolton, and now face another of the better teams in the league. Liverpool's home record this season is excellent, but at the same time Tottenham have only suffered two away defeats. A Tottenham victory would seem unlikely, which is reflected in the odds. The teams had contrasting FA Cup fortunes last week, Liverpool coming from 3-1 to beat Luton 5-3, while Tottenham led Leicester 2-0 before losing 3-2. This must have affected Tottenham's morale in a negative way. To conclude, I do think that Liverpool will win here, but I couldn't rule out Tottenham getting a draw. Tottenham do defend well most of the time, and if they get themselves organised here, it could be a close, low-scoring game. No bets.
Portsmouth 0-1 Everton
Since they changed their manager, Portsmouth have turned around their home form, and have the further boost here of having made several new signings this week. Everton have had a few decent results since losing to Liverpool without ever playing well. They have scored the fewest goals in the league, so if they are to win you'd think it would have to be 1-0 most likely. Portsmouth are on the up a bit though and will go into this game confident so I wouldn't back Everton to win. It remains to be seen whether this is a false dawn for Portsmouth, but they do have every chance here. With a few uncertain factors, I won't be betting on this game though.
Blackburn 0-0 Bolton
Blackburn are one of the best teams around at the moment. They've been playing well and have had a good run of results, particularly at home. The media have largely ignored them, but a win here would take them above Bolton, and almost within reach of the top four. Bolton are always a difficult team to play against, but they haven't been at their best in recent weeks. If I were to bet on anyone, it would be Blackburn here. The Carling Cup semi-final in midweek may have just taken a bit out of them though, particular after all of the games over Christmas and New Year. Bolton will be better rested, which may help. No bets.
Wigan 0-1 West Brom
Wigan are another team who may well be a little fatigued after a Carling Cup semi-final in midweek. They'll probably make a few changes to their team, but West Brom will be the more fresh here. Even so, West Brom have a shocking away record, and Wigan have a decent record this season against most of the teams outside the top five. West Brom should be scoring more goals away from home as they do have some decent strikers, but for one reason or another, they are not getting the results that they should be away from home. Wigan should have the edge, but with the best odds on them being around the 1.95 mark, I'll give them a miss.
Sunderland 1-2 Chelsea
This looks a complete mis-match looking at the league table. Sunderland have no home wins and only 6 points from 20 matches, while Chelsea have won 19 out of 21 matches this season. I'm certainly not going to suggest that this will be anything but an away win, but it must be noted that the odds on Chelsea here are the shortest for an away team in the Premier League that I have seen for a long time. Sunderland have actually given some decent performances in the games with Tottenham, Bolton, Everton and Fulham, but have still managed to pick up very few points. The glaring problem for them is a lack of cutting edge up front. They do not look like scoring many goals, while the opposition always look like they have a chance to score against them. Chelsea should be good enough to win by at least 2.
Bet: Chelsea -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.79 (Pinnacle Sports)
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