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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 578, Returned = 595.17, Yield = + 2.97%
Birmingham 1-1 West Brom
This is a massive match, with defeat leaving Birmingham in big, big trouble. A win will see them go level on points with West Brom though, so this is a crucial match for both teams. On the face of it, Birmingham have the slightly better team and have been probably doing slightly better recently. In such a high pressure match though, I wouldn't really want to be backing a team who have won so infrequently at home at the available odds, even against a relatively poor away team such as West Brom. It will probably be a close game, and I couldn't rule out the possibility of West Brom winning, such has been Birmingham's inconsistency. It's likely to be low-scoring, but the odds on Under 2.5 goals reflect that. No bets on this one.
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham
The first thing that must be noted is that Tottenham have an absolutely terrible record against Chelsea in recent years. This was the case even when Chelsea had a relatively poor team. Head to head records aren't the biggest factor in a match, but both teams must be aware of it. That said, Tottenham have learned how to keep it tight against the better teams this season, and this is probably a good time to play Chelsea with them having just lost to Barcelona in midweek. It could work both ways though, and I'd still expect Chelsea to win this. I wouldn't bet on them at the available odds though.
Bolton 4-1 West Ham
Bolton continue to do well at home, having only suffered one home defeat all season. West Ham have won more than they have lost away from home though, so certainly won't be pushovers here. Again, it looks like a probably low-scoring game, but the odds reflect this. Most markets look correctly priced up, and I can't really see a good bet. Bolton should have the edge, but the threat of a draw is too high to take the available odds on them.
Everton 3-1 Fulham
Fulham have been playing well recently, home and away. However, they seem to keep winning at home (apart from last week!) and losing away. It must be a mental thing, and it is impossible to back them away from home while they seem so vulnerable on their travels. Everton have been defending well and getting results lately, so they are precisely the sort of team that Fulham do not like playing against. That is not to say that Everton will win, but Fulham will have to defend a lot better than they have been doing to avoid defeat here. Everton look to have the edge, but I'd want higher odds to take a bet on them.
Portsmouth 2-1 Manchester City
Despite all of their new signings, Portsmouth are struggling badly and look destined for relegation unless their fortunes turn around very quickly. Manchester City have been doing OK lately, but mainly in their home games. Their away record isn't fantastic, although they have picked up the same number of points away from home as Portsmouth have at home. Therefore it is probably fair enough that Manchester City are slight favourites for this game. I wouldn't be looking to back them at the available odds though. Portsmouth do have some decent players, but the results have been awful. I am slightly tempted by the odds on them, but with form so poor, it's a bet best left probably. No bets on this one.
Sunderland 0-1 Wigan
Wigan have just started to struggle a little bit and have suffered a few defeats recently. However, they did play very well last week against Manchester United and can count themselves very unfortunate to have lost that game. Sunderland have changed their manager this week, which can often lead to an improvement in performances. It would be pretty difficult for Sunderland's results to get any worse, but they haven't always been playing too badly. Defensive errors and a lack of goal scoring threat have been Sunderland's main problems, and until they sort that out it is hard to see them winning. Wigan have better strikers so should have the edge, but their odds are too short to take given their poor recent results.
Blackburn 2-0 Aston Villa
Blackburn can count themselves very unfortunate to have lost to Tottenham last week having played well, but suffered a couple of poor decisions. Their last home game saw them beat Arsenal so they can certainly go into this game with confidence. A very interesting statistic though is that Aston Villa have only lost 4 out of 14 away league games this season, which is pretty impressive. Blackburn have been good at home, but their odds are low considering Villa's away record. I'd have backed Blackburn at home to most teams this week, but Villa have become a tough nut to crack.
Manchester United 2-0 Newcastle
Newcastle have improved a lot in recent weeks, but it is still hard to back them in a game like this when they are without Owen. Manchester United have thrown in the odd poor performance lately, but would still expect to win a game like this one at home though. Newcastle are playing with more confidence though and better defensive organisation, so there are probably better bets are fairly short odds this weekend.
Charlton 2-1 Middlesbrough
Both teams here have built decent recent form on strong defence, so this looks like being a close, low-scoring game. Charlton look to be priced much too low given that they have lost more home games than they have won this season. Despite playing in Europe in midweek, Middlesbrough should have a very good chance here. With Charlton's odds looking much too low, the value lies with Middlesbrough on the Asian Handicap.
Bet: Middlesbrough +0.25 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 10/10
Odds: 1.92 (VC Bet)
Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool
These teams had totally contrasting fortunes in Europe in midweek, so there is no doubt that Arsenal will be feeling a lot better about themselves going into this game. Liverpool are still struggling to score, but do defend well on the whole. I would favour Arsenal here, but their odds are just a little short given their struggling form in the league this season. A draw is perfectly possible here, so no bets.
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