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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 555, Returned = 587.17, Yield = + 5.80%
Wigan 0-1 Liverpool
Wigan are missing several key players here: Chimbonda and Roberts will be particularly missed after doing very well this season. Liverpool have Gerrard fit again, all of which makes me rule out any sort of bet on Wigan. Liverpool have suffered a few poor performances recently, and haven't been playing too well or scoring too many goals. It looks like a low-scoring game and I am prepared to risk a bet on Under 2.5 goals.
Bet: Under 2.5 goals
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.70 (Interwetten)
Arsenal 1-1 Bolton
Arsenal still have major defensive injury problems, so while Bolton have a few players missing also, Arsenal cannot be relied upon to win this game. They should probably have enough to edge out Bolton, but it is hard to take a bet on them baring in mind their performance in their last home game against West Ham. Bolton are always awkward to play against, although they do not have a great record at Highbury. Arsenal are still a little vulnerable, although I do think that they will probably win here. The odds on them are just too low to take a bet though.
Aston Villa 1-2 Newcastle
Newcastle dominated against Portsmouth last week and could easily have won by more than the final 2-0 result. It is hard to tell if this is a result of the pressure being lifted with the departure of Souness, or just Portsmouth being very poor. Aston Villa have had some solid form recently, drawing with Chelsea before destroying Middlesbrough. They certainly don't look a team to oppose at the moment, as they look to be pretty confident. Newcastle's away form is pretty poor, so you have to edge towards Aston Villa here, but a team with 3 home wins in 12 is hard to be on at the available odds. Newcastle have too many uncertain factors hanging over them to be able to fully predict what will happen here with any confidence. Even without Owen, they are a team capable of raising their game and playing well. Despite their lack of away wins it is hard to rule them out of winning here, but at the same time Villa are playing well, so this game is best left alone from a betting point of view.
Everton 1-0 Blackburn
Everton's form is very good at the moment, despite their 4-1 FA Cup defeat at Chelsea, who played well. Everton have learnt how to edge out narrow victories again, mainly due to defending a lot better than they did in the early part of the season. Blackburn have produced a couple of pretty poor performances in their last two away games against West Brom and West Ham, but generally have had a good last couple of months. Blackburn certainly have the players to trouble Everton here, but you'd naturally favour a home win given Blackburn's recent poor away performances. Everton's odds are a little too low though, as they do not score enough goals. If they fall behind it is hard to see them winning. Everton should have the edge, but all three results are possible. No bets.
Fulham 6-1 West Brom
Fulham are an entirely different team at home than they are away from home. 26 points from 12 home games, and 3 points from 13 away games tells its own story. West Brom are pretty poor away from home, having only scored 4 away goals this season, so Fulham look strong favourites here. Fulham played very well in losing to Manchester United last week and can count themselves a little unfortunate to lose. West Brom have not performed well enough away from home to make a case for them here, so a bet on Fulham seems reasonable.
Bet: Fulham
Stake: 9/10
Odds: 1.91 (Paddy Power)
Middlesbrough 3-0 Chelsea
Middlesbrough are on shocking form at the moment, but do have a habit of raising their game for the top teams, having won against both Manchester United and Arsenal at home this season. Chelsea have been a little below their best for the past month or so, so this game isn't the formality that it may appear. Chelsea should certainly win unless Middlesbrough improve dramatically, but Middlesbrough do have some players who may raise their game for a match such as this. No bets.
Portsmouth 1-3 Manchester United
Portsmouth looked a shambles in their defeat at Newcastle, and their problem is that they have so many new players, it is hard for them to play as a team. This will improve over time, but Portsmouth do not have a lot of time. They are well adrift of safety and need to start winning. Portsmouth's away form lately has been very poor indeed, so they need to pick up points at home. They'd probably settle for one point here, but anything is possible as Manchester United have had a fair few defensive lapses lately. Fulham and Blackburn have shown that it is possible to score goals against them, so Portsmouth will fancy their chances. Having said that, Manchester United's away record is pretty solid this season, so they have every chance of winning. I'd need higher odds to bet on them though, as Portsmouth may well improve game by game. No bets here.
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