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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 342, Returned = 320.27, Yield = -6.35%
Liverpool 2-0 Middlesbrough
Liverpool have been on a superb run, particularly defensively. Middlesbrough are a dangerous opponent though, who played very well at Chelsea, but just didn't get the luck they needed at the key moments. It is hard to tell if Liverpool's form over the past few weeks is a sign that they are now a genuine top team, or whether they will lapse into their old inconsistent habits. You have to give them the benefit of the doubt at the moment, but Middlesbrough are certainly capable of troubling them here. No bets on this one.
Birmingham 1-0 Fulham
Birmingham took the lead against West Ham on Monday, but after that were woeful. Their home record is very poor indeed, and it would've been a good idea to oppose them here, but Boa Morte and Diop are suspended for Fulham, which weakens Fulham's team quite a bit. Fulham have been playing OK in recent week, but are still not picking up many points away from home. This is a hard game to call, so no bets.
Blackburn 3-2 West Ham
Blackburn have been pretty good at home this season, while West Ham have generally been pretty good. West Ham will have been boosted by an impressive win at Birmingham so will certainly be no pushovers here. Blackburn are quite strong favourites still, and probably correctly so. I just feel that Blackburn perhaps struggle a bit when expected to win. West Ham will make it difficult for them, so Blackburn seem slightly under-priced. West Ham probably won't win though, so it looks another game to avoid betting on.
Bolton 1-1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa are on a poor run of form, but were only a missed penalty away from winning at Newcastle last week. I don't believe that Villa are a bad team, but they seem to be lacking confidence, especially when it comes to trying to score goals. Bolton will no doubt be a popular bet this week, especially after winning well against Arsenal, but I have my doubts about them. It is tempting to oppose them, but it is worth noting that they have only conceded 1 goal in 7 home games, which is a fantastic record. The game looks to be priced up approximately correctly.
Charlton 2-0 Sunderland
Everyone beats Sunderland. Tottenham made hard work out of it last week, but in the end Sunderland lost as usual. This game may not follow the usual pattern though. Charlton were simply dreadful in losing 5-2 at home to Manchester City last week and are in the middle of a terrible run of form, particularly at home. Sunderland have a few injuries still though, but will probably have Arca back. It is tempting to oppose Charlton here, but Sunderland just do not inspire any confidence at all. I wouldn't back Charlton either, but Sunderland just can't be supported with any confidence. No bets.
Chelsea 1-0 Wigan
Wigan have had a run of defeats, but shouldn't get too down about thing. They played well in losing to Arsenal, but then have lost a little easily to Tottenham and Liverpool. Wigan are doing a lot better than expected, but may now be lacking a bit of confidence after their first poor run of the season. They can go into this game with nothing to lose, and with the knowledge that they matched Chelsea in the opening game of the season. Chelsea have won every home game though, and usually find a way to win. They didn't play well against Middlesbrough, but still did just enough to win. Wigan aren't without a slight chance, but Chelsea will be a part of many accumulators this week. It's hard to see Chelsea not winning, but there is the nagging feeling that they have been lucky in a few games this season and that the luck will run out sooner or later. Chelsea are just fractionally too low to recommend as a bet.
West Brom 2-0 Manchester City
Man City produced their best performance in a while to win easily at Charlton last week, while West Brom couldn't score against Fulham despite playing against 10 men for over half the game. West Brom simply don't win enough games and are heading for a long struggle. Manchester City are hard to beat when they are playing well, which they should do after the confidence boost of a big win against Charlton. I was hoping that West Brom would be favourites here, but the bookmakers are taking no chances. West Brom do put in the odd good performance at home (4-0 against Everton for example), so certainly cannot be written off. Manchester City on the level ball Asian are tempting, but I'd want very close to 2.00 to take it, so no bets here.
Newcastle 1-0 Arsenal
Arsenal rested most of their best player against Ajax in midweek, so should travel to this game with a fresh team. The problem for them is at left-back, where Cygan is a massive liability. He looks dreadful against Bolton, but Arsenal look like sticking with him while Cole and Clichy are injured. This is Arsenal's only real weakness, as the rest of their players are available, apart from Reyes, who wouldn't have started anyway. The absolute key point for Newcastle is, as usual, the fitness of Owen. He is rated 50/50, and as such it is impossible to place a bet on this game without knowing whether he will play. Newcastle have a chance to win if he plays, while it would be very surprising if they came close to winning if he didn't play. It is probably best to wait for the line-ups before deciding on any bets.
Manchester United 1-1 Everton
Manchester United will obviously be reeling after their Champions League exit against Benfica in midweek. They do have a very good recent record against Everton though, and some decent recent league form. Everton's form is also pretty good though, and I just wouldn't be looking to be on Manchester United at short odds after what happened in midweek. No bets.
Tottenham 3-1 Portsmouth
Tottenham will attract a lot of bets for this game, but as shown against Sunderland, they can struggle when expected to win. Portsmouth may well raise their performance slightly with Redknapp taking over as manager, which could be enough for them to at least avoid defeat here. Too many uncertainties hang over the game. No bets.
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