Home
ANALYSIS:
|
|
|
|
Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 256, Returned = 245.32, Yield = -4.17%
Aston Villa 0-2 Liverpool
Whether Liverpool can transfer their European form from midweek to the league remains to be seen. They have performed quite well in Europe this season and last, while producing several pathetic performances in the league. Aston Villa have been poor recently, so this is a game that Liverpool really should be looking to win, especially given that Aston Villa have a few players injured. Yet this is a Liverpool team with no away wins in the league this season, and only five last season. I certainly wouldn't trust Liverpool with any of my money in a game like this. If Aston Villa were any better I would oppose them, but it's probably priced correctly.
Arsenal 3-1 Sunderland
Henry is not certain to play here, which is the only thing preventing Arsenal from being apparently certain to win. Sunderland were awful in the second half against Portsmouth, and have too many players who are out of their depth. Probably their best player, Arca, is injured, so there seems very little hope for them. Arsenal to win this easily probably.
Bet: Arsenal
Stake: 10/10
Odds: 1.25 (Totesport)
Bet: Arsenal -1.5 (Asian Handicap)
Stake: 6/10
Odds: 1.79 (Canbet)
Blackburn 4-1 Charlton
Charlton's amazing record of having won every away game will end sooner or later, but I wouldn't be looking to oppose them here. The odds on Blackburn are not great, although they have done alright in recent games. Charlton lost to Bolton in their last game, and didn't particularly look like scoring many goals, so perhaps Blackburn are worthy of their odds for this game. Charlton will not maintain such an impressive away record over a prolonged period, so no bets here.
Fulham 2-1 Manchester City
Fulham have played better than the results they have got. There is no doubt about the fact that they were better than Wigan last week, but they missed several chances and then conceded a last minute goal. The referee didn't help them much either, so they can consider that an unlucky defeat. Manchester City are a harder team to beat these days, just the sort of team that Fulham might find it hard against. Fulham are playing well though, so I'd expect Fulham to have the edge if anything, but they are slight favourites with the bookmakers also, so no bets here.
Newcastle 1-0 Birmingham
Newcastle will be a popular bet this weekend, and it is not hard to see why looking at the respective form of the two teams. Add to this that Birmingham's midfield is decimated due to injury (Butt is also not eligible to play). Newcastle still have a few injuries though, and still haven't convinced me that they deserve to be at such short odds for this game. No doubt plenty of money has been staked on Newcastle this week, so the odds have fallen a little over the past few days. Birmingham have performed better away from home than at home, certainly losing less games on their travels. Newcastle should win here, but I'd want higher odds if I was going to bet on it. They won against West Brom and Sunderland, but for large periods in those games were under pressure, so perhaps the odds are a little low here.
West Ham 1-0 West Brom
West Ham have had a very good season so far, so much so that they are priced below Evens (2.00) for this game, which would've been very unlikely before the season started. West Brom have been very poor in a lot of their recent matches, so it is no great surprise, but they did play OK against Newcastle last week for long periods. West Ham I feel have over-achieved so far this season, and have to be opposed in this game with a small wager on West Brom, who can occasionally throw up a very good performance. West Ham are not consistent enough to take at low odds.
Bet: West Brom
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 4.50 (Expekt)
Portsmouth 0-2 Wigan
Portsmouth have yet to win a home game, while Wigan have won three out of four away games and have won seven and drawn one of their previous eight games overall. Based on those statistics, the odds on Wigan seem massive. Looking a little closer at it, Wigan have enjoyed some luck in recent games, not least against Fulham last week. Newcastle also scored a clear goal against them which wasn't given. Wigan have played well in patches though, and are in second place on merit. They are difficult to play against and hard to beat at the moment. Wigan's current positive will not last though, while Portsmouth are better than they appear at times. They have received a lot of critisism in the media, but have performed quite well in some games. Wigan are slightly the better of these teams at the moment, but home advantage for Portsmouth might tip the game slightly in their favour. No bets.
Everton 1-0 Middlesbrough
Everton will be very pleased to have won at Birmingham last week, despite needing a bit of luck to do so. Middlesbrough played very well to beat Manchester United, but could still be a little vulnerable here without Southgate and Ehiogu. It looks to be priced correctly, so no bets.
Manchester United 1-0 Chelsea
Manchester United are at the highest odds they have been for a home Premier League ever. That doesn't make them a particularly good bet, because they are still missing several key players, have not been playing well and have a pretty poor home record this season. That also does not mean that Chelsea will win though, as I'm sure they'd settle for a draw here. Chelsea are close to full-strength, which gives them the advantage as Manchester United's squad is not as strong. I can easily see a 0-0 draw here, so this is the value bet probably.
Bet: Manchester United 0-0 Chelsea (correct score)
Stake: 2/10
Odds: 7.50 (Betinternet)
Partners:
Recommended
bookies:
Sporting Index
