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ANALYSIS:
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Analysis Premier League: By Richard Borrowdale
2003/2004: Staked = 1180, Returned = 1150.43, Yield = -2.51%
2004/2005: Staked = 650, Returned = 636.785, Yield = -2.03%
2005/2006: Staked = 568, Returned = 595.17, Yield = + 4.78%
West Brom 1-2 Chelsea
West Brom are really struggling, with defeat last week against Middlesbrough harming their chances of avoiding relegation. Not many people will expect them to pick up points here, and indeed they do look likely to lose. Chelsea look set to leave out Lampard though, which will weaken them. One or two other players may be rested as Chelsea have one eye on their trip to Barcelona in midweek. Chelsea do not really absolutely have to win here, so it may be best to avoid betting on them this week. It wouldn't be impossible for West Brom to get something from the game if Chelsea are slightly below their best.
Aston Villa 1-0 Portsmouth
Portsmouth have been terrible away from home in recent matches, so it is hard to take any sort of bet on them here. Aston Villa do have a defensive crisis though, with several defenders likely to be missing. They have only won 3 from 13 at home this season, so it is hard to bet on them at short odds here. Portsmouth clearly have big problems, and really need to be winning here rather than drawing, so it could be an open game. There are too many uncertain factors to take any bet here though I think.
Fulham 0-4 Arsenal
Purely looking at Fulham's home record and Arsenal's away record, you'd have to say that Fulham are one of the best bets of the season. However, they are without a couple of important players in Bridge and Diop here. Arsenal will still be missing most of their regular defenders though, which will make it hard for them. Arsenal will be taking this game very seriously given their league position, and I can probably just see them edging it. I wouldn't bet on it though, as they have won away from home so little this season.
Middlesbrough 1-0 Birmingham
Suddenly over the past month or so, Middlesbrough have started to play much, much better. Their win over West Brom was crucial last week, and another win here should probably see Middlesbrough safe from relegation this season. Despite their good recent form, Middlesbrough won't find it easy against Birmingham here. They have flattered to deceive at home all season, and I wouldn't be rushing to back them at the odds on offer here. Birmingham have picked up a couple of decent results recently, but need to start winning soon to move out of the bottom three. I suspect that Birmingham would take a draw here, so I wouldn't want to back them to win. It looks like being a tight game, and one I'd rather not bet on.
Newcastle 3-1 Bolton
Since Souness left Newcastle, they have improved and are unbeaten. Bolton do not have a good record at Newcastle in recent years, but will fancy their chances here. Newcastle still look a little lightweight in attack, with Shearer not certain to return from injury here. They have looked much more confident and much more like a team in recent weeks though, so I'm a little reluctant to oppose them here. Bolton's away record is OK, but they don't win away from home too often, so no bets here.
West Ham 2-2 Everton
West Ham continue to surprise most people by remaining in the top half of the league, picking up good results on a regular basis. Everton's recent form is pretty decent, although they did lose to Newcastle. They are a hard team to play against and have not conceded too many goals in recent weeks. West Ham have to be favoured slightly as they are at home, but it is impossible to rule out Everton winning here. Any of three results are possible, but it looks to be priced approximately correctly. If I was betting on anything, I'd take Everton on the handicaps, but the odds just aren't quite high enough.
Liverpool 0-0 Charlton
Liverpool should probably have the edge here, but Charlton have shown signs in recent weeks that they are playing OK. They also beat Liverpool only a few weeks ago in the league. I wouldn't really want to back Liverpool at fairly short odds, as Charlton are capable of keeping it tight away from home. Liverpool may also have one eye on the Champions League game in midweek, which could possibly see them rest one or two players. They should still win, but the odds don't represent a worthwhile bet.
Manchester City 2-1 Sunderland
Sunderland have given a couple of teams a quite difficult game really, but still do end up losing most of the time, so you can understand the low odds on Manchester City. Manchester City do struggle at time, so the odds are probably slightly too low. Sunderland are unlikely to win, but their wins this season have come away from home. No bets on this one.
Tottenham 3-2 Blackburn
Both teams here have played fairly well lately. Blackburn are much better at home than they are away though, so Tottenham have to be favoured here really. Tottenham can struggle at times to score against well-organised teams, so I wouldn't really want to bet on them here. It looks to be priced correctly, so no bets.
Wigan 1-2 Manchester United
Wigan have played Manchester United twice this season, and lost 4-0 on both occasions. They are having a good season though, and do have a chance here as this is Wigan's first meeting at home with Manchester United. It seems unlikely that they could turn things around so quickly though after having lost 4-0 to the same opposition just over a week ago. Manchester United need to win in the race for second place, but are priced too low despite their good record against Wigan. It is hard to find a good bet on this one.
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